4815 Airway Dr NE #72 · Cascade Valley, WA 98837

$47,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 187 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $43k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained 2-bedroom doublewide located in the welcoming, all-ages community of Harvest Manor! This home features nicely updated kitchen and living spaces with laminate wood flooring, a spacious living room open to the dining area, and plenty of natural light. Enjoy the convenience of the included appliances; washer, dryer, freezer, refrigerator, oven, microwave, garbage disposal, and dishwasher. The level lot offers mature landscaping, two secure storage sheds behind the home, and additional community storage available for boats, RVs, and more. Ideally located close to the park, clubhouse, and pool, his home is move-in ready and ready for its next owners.

Key facts

• Secure storage sheds
• Natural light
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• SECURE STORAGE SHEDS
• COMMUNITY STORAGE
• CLOSE TO PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $715 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.2% vs local median 2.7% in Cascade Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#370 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: commute D, employment D, schools F.
• Moses Lake School District (town): math 38% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #198 of 291 in WA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 585 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 559 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $332 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grant County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $48k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $42,196 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.90%
• DSCR: 3.84
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $43,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4815 NE Airway Dr #111	0.00mi	2/1.0	840 (-12%)	14mo	$38,000	$45	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $34,055
• Equity at exit: $7,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $73,949
• Equity at exit: $4,146

Cash invested: $13,426 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98837

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$251
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $127/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $715

Break-even live

Break-even rent $357

Max offer price $47,950

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,988
• Closing costs: $1,438
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5025 Owens Rd NE Unit A301 Moses Lake, WA	1.0	1.0	596	$1,250	$2.10	43d	1	0.57mi
1232 Vandenburg Ave Moses Lake, WA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	43d	1	0.61mi
4727 Owens Rd NE #24 Moses Lake, WA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	43d	1	0.74mi
1422 E Craig St Moses Lake, WA	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	980	$725	$0.74	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-21
   price $47,950
3. 2026-01-10
   price $53,000
4. 2026-01-09
   status Active
5. 2025-12-31
   status Pending
6. 2025-11-11
   price $56,250
7. 2025-10-13
   listed $61,250 Active
8. 2018-12-10
   soldstatus $20,000 Sold
9. 2018-10-21
   status Pending
10. 2018-10-12
    status Active
11. 2018-10-03
    status Pending
12. 2018-07-18
    listed $25,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $127 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Expected delta: +$343/yr (+$29/mo · 269.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,686
• − Property taxes: −$127
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,212
• − Management: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$1,395
• Taxable income: $8,273
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,986
• After-tax cash flow: $6,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moses Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 5305220
• Math proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,033
• Composite: 39.17/100
• National rank: #8232
• State rank: #198 of 291 in WA

Livability — Cascade Valley

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #370
• US rank: #14130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing D- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cascade Valley, WA
• County: Grant County · 61,643 people
• City population: 47,399
• Metro: Moses Lake, WA
• Population (ZIP): 49,455
• Household income: $74,586
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1064.0

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,356 people
• By 2030: 102,107 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 108,318 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 114,712 · +15.5%
• By 2075: 131,376 · +32.2%
• By 2100: 146,163 · +47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Subsaharan African 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.5) · D 30.0% · R 67.4% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -37.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.5 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+37.9 2012: R+32.6 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -384.29%
• Current HPI: 208.4574
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.72%
• Metro: Moses Lake, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+91.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $47,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $53,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $56,250 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Listed $61,250 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-10 Sold (MLS) $20,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-12 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-18 Listed $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $127 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.