5100 N Highway 99 #230 · Stockton, CA 95212

$168,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 83 Days on market

Built 1972 Good condition $117/sqft · 41% above area Est $119k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Shadow Lake Mobile Home Park, an all-age community! This spacious double-wide mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with approximately 1,400 square feet of living space. The mobile home has been fully updated with new flooring, new kitchen cabinets, bathrooms and fresh interior paint throughout. Enjoy the convenience of indoor laundry. . A wonderful home for a growing family, offering comfort, space, and modern updates.

Key facts

• Fully updated
• New flooring
• New kitchen cabinets

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• FULLY UPDATED
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• INDOOR LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,920 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.19%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,210
• List price: $168,000
• Delta: 40.93%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5100 N 99 Hwy #78	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$125,550	$87	80
5100 Highway 99 #31	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-3%)	13mo	$137,000	$98	75
5100 N Highway 99 #90	0.07mi	3/3.0	1,536 (+7%)	10mo	$121,000	$79	73
4900 N Hwy 99 Spc 249	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-11%)	2mo	$98,000	$77	72
4900 N Highway 99 #61	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	16mo	$89,900	$67	64
4900 N Highway 99 #27	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	21mo	$134,900	$88	56
4900 N Highway 99 #128	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+12%)	18mo	$120,000	$74	56
4900 N Highway 99 #151	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	13mo	$115,000	$92	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $53,198
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.19×
• Total profit: $150,008
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95212

• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$210 /mo · $2,520/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$644
• Net cashflow: $1,262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,470

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $168,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $168,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,000 Active 65 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$2,520
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,944
• − Management: −$2,944
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable income: $13,258
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,182
• After-tax cash flow: $11,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully updated mobile home in Shadow Lake Mobile Home Park offers a good condition with new flooring, kitchen, and bathrooms. It is move-in ready and has a good curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting exterior — fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value
• Both upgrading appliances — newer appliances can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting exterior — fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value ↑
• Both upgrading appliances — newer appliances can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,437
• Household income: $111,720
• Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 43% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 9%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.93%
• Current HPI: 265.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B