408 Cinnamon Dr · Poinciana, FL 34759

$289,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,814 sqft · Land · 88 Days on market

Built 2026 7,000 sqft lot $302/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Beautiful High Quality Lot in the gated community of Tuscany Preserve. This is a wonderful place to build your dream home in a very upscale neighborhood with all home having tile roofs, gated for privacy and quietness and many more activities and sports in the incredible Club House. Must come to see a cleared lot with all utilities. Priced to SELL!

Key facts

• Open-concept
• Concrete block
• Tile roof

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT
• CONCRETE BLOCK
• TILE ROOF
• 42 CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• VAULTED CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage approximately 0.16 acres
• HOA & community: Tuscany Preserve & Association of Poinciana Villages HOA membership required; Monthly HOA fees of $267 plus an additional $35 monthly fee; HOA includes cable TV, internet, pool, security, trash, and grounds maintenance; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, gated community, park, playground, pool, sidewalks, tennis courts; Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces east; New construction; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Stone counters; Thermostat; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary School (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,058 students, 50% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); New Beginnings High School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #655 of 667 statewide, top 98%, 753 students, 66% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1155 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $290k implies a 428% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,563 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.25%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-54,449
• Equity at exit: $63,378

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-74,165
• Equity at exit: $61,079

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1155
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,076 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $624/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$302
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,525

Max offer price $227,136

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-191	-5% $-273	+0% $-355	+5% $-437	+10% $-866
Rent	-10% $-519	-5% $-437	+0% $-355	+5% $-273	+10% $-191
Rate	-1.0pp $-209	-0.5pp $-282	base $-355	+0.5pp $-430	+1.0pp $-507

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
404 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,775	$1.34	16d	1	0.02mi
446 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,675	$1.26	25d	1	0.06mi
452 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	25d	1	0.06mi
439 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$1,800	$1.01	5d	1	0.08mi
922 Centaury Dr Unit 1 Poinciana, FL	3.0	3.0	2166	$1,900	$0.88	16d	1	0.11mi
333 Daffodil Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,040	$1.10	15d	1	0.32mi
1282 Clove Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1906	$1,600	$0.84	5d	1	0.33mi
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	25d	1	0.38mi
1110 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2110	$1,575	$0.75	25d	1	0.39mi
305 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,000	$1.28	5d	1	0.40mi
302 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	25d	1	0.43mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	5d	1	0.44mi
2150 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,700	$1.37	13d	1	0.44mi
309 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,150	$1.22	5d	1	0.44mi
2140 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,495	$1.20	16d	1	0.45mi
339 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1504	$2,345	$1.56	4d	1	0.46mi
207 Begonia Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1623	$1,925	$1.19	25d	1	0.47mi
302 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,240	$1.34	5d	1	0.50mi
337 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,980	$1.19	15d	1	0.55mi
325 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,995	$1.24	5d	1	0.55mi
431 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1764	$1,895	$1.07	5d	1	0.55mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	25d	1	0.55mi
344 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,825	$1.09	5d	1	0.60mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,005	$1.08	5d	1	0.61mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	16d	1	0.61mi
407 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$1,600	$0.86	13d	1	0.62mi
145 Ocean Bluff Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,500	$1.20	25d	1	0.63mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$1,970	$1.08	5d	1	0.64mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,970	$1.06	4d	1	0.64mi
210 Goldenrod Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,875	$1.15	25d	1	0.65mi
319 Erie Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,765	$1.35	15d	1	0.66mi
207 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,855	$1.16	5d	1	0.66mi
319 Erie Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,815	$1.39	25d	1	0.69mi
260 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,065	$1.24	5d	1	0.71mi
2129 Hibiscus Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$2,100	$1.19	5d	1	0.73mi
263 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,750	$1.09	16d	1	0.73mi
105 Zinnia Ln W Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	5d	1	0.76mi
2005 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1669	$1,719	$1.03	5d	1	0.82mi
260 Hyacinth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,765	$1.26	25d	1	0.83mi
2006 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1886	$2,040	$1.08	5d	1	0.84mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $302 · $3,624/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $289,900 Pending 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $289,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-05-21
   status Active
7. 2026-05-21
   price $289,900
8. 2026-05-07
   price $294,000
9. 2026-04-17
   price $295,000
10. 2026-03-30
    price $298,000
11. 2026-03-20
    price $299,000
12. 2026-03-03
    listed $299,999 Active
13. 2026-02-27
    historical
14. 2026-01-28
    price $304,900
15. 2026-01-20
    price $309,900
16. 2025-11-07
    listed $314,900 Active
17. 2022-05-13
    soldstatus $54,900 Closed 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    A Beautiful High Quality Lot in the gated community of Tuscany Preserve. This is a wonderful place to build your dream home in a very upscale neighborhood with all home having tile roofs, gated for privacy and quietness and many more activities and sports in the incredible Club House. Must come to see a cleared lot with all utilities. Priced to SELL!

18. 2022-05-13
    soldstatus $54,900

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    A Beautiful High Quality Lot in the gated community of Tuscany Preserve. This is a wonderful place to build your dream home in a very upscale neighborhood with all home having tile roofs, gated for privacy and quietness and many more activities and sports in the incredible Club House. Must come to see a cleared lot with all utilities. Priced to SELL!

19. 2022-04-08
    status Pending 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    A Beautiful High Quality Lot in the gated community of Tuscany Preserve. This is a wonderful place to build your dream home in a very upscale neighborhood with all home having tile roofs, gated for privacy and quietness and many more activities and sports in the incredible Club House. Must come to see a cleared lot with all utilities. Priced to SELL!

20. 2022-04-01
    listed $54,900 Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    A Beautiful High Quality Lot in the gated community of Tuscany Preserve. This is a wonderful place to build your dream home in a very upscale neighborhood with all home having tile roofs, gated for privacy and quietness and many more activities and sports in the incredible Club House. Must come to see a cleared lot with all utilities. Priced to SELL!

21. 2013-12-19
    soldstatus $25,500
22. 1995-03-23
    soldstatus $9,494

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $624 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,406 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,782/yr (+$149/mo · 285.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$624
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,993
• − Management: −$1,993
• − HOA: −$3,624
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$9,447
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,267
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2953.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $294,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $298,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $299,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $304,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Listed $314,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records
• 2022-05-13 Sold (MLS) $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-01 Listed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records
• 1995-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $9,494 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $624 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.