10865 SE Timucuan Rd · The Villages, FL 34491

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,715 sqft · Manufactured public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1995 0.49 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in the quiet beauty of Bird Island, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers the kind of privacy and comfort that’s hard to find. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a peaceful getaway, this home checks all the boxes. Step inside and you’re greeted by a spacious, open layout with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout – stylish, low-maintenance, and perfect for everyday living. A wood-burning fireplace adds a cozy touch to the living area, creating the perfect spot to unwind after a long day. The kitchen is truly the heart of the home, offering generous counter space, tons of cabinets, and a layout that makes cooking and entertaining effo

Key facts

• Private oasis
• Tons of cabinets
• 0.49 acre lot

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• TONS OF CABINETS
• OVERSIZED EN SUITE BATHROOM
• PRIVATE OASIS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.49 acres (129 x 166); One well and one septic on the property

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story (one level); Faces south; Entry on main level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Lakefront property with lake views and lake access; Outdoor lighting; Private mailbox; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Smoke detectors; Fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stanton-Weirsdale Elementary School (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 544 students, 70% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 705 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $210k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.54%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-10,582
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $20,767
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,083 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,054/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,616

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $488	-5% $429	+0% $369	+5% $310	+10% $250
Rent	-10% $205	-5% $287	+0% $369	+5% $452	+10% $534
Rate	-1.0pp $475	-0.5pp $423	base $369	+0.5pp $315	+1.0pp $260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit A08 Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,000	$1.67	22d	1	1.07mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5–2.0	1244	$1,770	$1.42	22d	2	1.12mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit H52 Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,440	$1.18	22d	1	1.14mi
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,300	$1.62	14d	1	1.31mi
9871 SE 161st Lane Rd Unit 0 Summerfield, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,200	$1.20	22d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-05-24
    status Active
16. 2026-03-12
    status Pending
17. 2025-10-25
    price $210,000
18. 2025-10-07
    price $226,000
19. 2025-09-22
    listed $229,000 Active
20. 2025-09-15
    historical
21. 2025-08-15
    listed $229,000 Active
22. 2025-08-01
    historical
23. 2025-07-14
    price $244,000
24. 2025-06-20
    listed $247,000 Active
25. 2014-11-13
    soldstatus $95,000
26. 2009-01-30
    soldstatus $137,500
27. 2008-12-01
    historical
28. 2008-06-07
    listed $161,910
29. 2006-04-30
    historical
30. 2006-01-11
    historical
31. 2006-01-11
    historical
32. 2005-09-06
    listed $189,000
33. 2005-09-01
    listed $269,000
34. 2005-07-13
    listed $189,000
35. 2005-05-25
    soldstatus $109,328
36. 2005-05-16
    soldstatus $109,900
37. 2005-04-06
    listed $109,900
38. 1995-04-19
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$689/yr (+$57/mo · 65.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,054
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $1,025
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$246
• After-tax cash flow: $4,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+600.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $226,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $244,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Listed $247,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2009-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $137,500 Public Records
• 2008-12-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-07 Listed $161,910 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-06 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-01 Listed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-13 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $109,328 Public Records
• 2005-05-16 Sold (MLS) $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-06 Listed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,054 · +28.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.