1503 Lands End St · Granbury, TX 76048

$180,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 437 Days on market

Built 1977 3,049 sqft lot $155/sqft · 30% below area Est $257k · 30% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 2 bed 1 bath with a fenced yard! New HVAC unit July 2023. Tenant occupies the property at this time. Great investment opportunity!! New flooring throughout and stainless steel appliances. Large fenced back yard!!

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $180,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$257,288) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.8% in Granbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#628 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 437 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 437 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.62%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,288
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -30.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1508 Pecos Trail Ct	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,292 (+11%)	12mo	$175,000	$135	60
4016 Lands End Ct	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+2%)	14mo	$425,000	$358	53
4310 Lucero Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,080 (-7%)	5mo	$169,900	$157	50
1308 Laredo Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,256 (+8%)	2mo	$240,000	$191	49
4308 Lucero Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-5%)	16mo	$209,900	$191	36
4127 Aztec Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,247 (+8%)	24mo	$525,000	$421	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-20,219
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,151
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,538/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,589

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2700 Steepleridge Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,895	$1.32	7d	1	0.93mi
2414 Forest Hill Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,150	$1.44	4d	1	0.97mi
4710 Llano St Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	43d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 437 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 436 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 435 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 434 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 432 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 428 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 427 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 426 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,000 Active 423 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 422 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 421 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 420 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 419 DOM
14. 2025-08-11
    price $180,000 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Cute 2 bed 1 bath with a fenced yard! New HVAC unit July 2023. Tenant occupies the property at this time. Great investment opportunity!! New flooring throughout and stainless steel appliances. Large fenced back yard!!

15. 2025-04-07
    listed $190,000 Active 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Cute 2 bed 1 bath with a fenced yard! New HVAC unit July 2023. Tenant occupies the property at this time. Great investment opportunity!! New flooring throughout and stainless steel appliances. Large fenced back yard!!

16. 2025-01-24
    historical
17. 2025-01-13
    historical $1,400
18. 2025-01-08
    listed $1,400
19. 2025-01-07
    historical $1,400
20. 2024-12-10
    price $220,000
21. 2024-08-29
    listed $1,400
22. 2024-07-10
    listed $235,000 Active
23. 2023-07-25
    historical $1,400
24. 2023-07-16
    listed $1,400
25. 2023-02-06
    soldstatus Closed
26. 2023-02-06
    soldstatus
27. 2023-01-20
    status Pending
28. 2023-01-11
    price $200,000
29. 2022-12-15
    price $215,000
30. 2022-11-30
    listed $220,000 Active
31. 2022-08-16
    soldstatus
32. 2021-03-10
    soldstatus
33. 2017-01-23
    soldstatus
34. 1980-05-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,538 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$756/yr (+$63/mo · 29.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,538
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,761
• − Management: −$1,761
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$135
• After-tax cash flow: $2,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granbury

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• City population: 58,506
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-07 Listed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-01-13 Rental Removed $1,400 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-08 Listed for Rent $1,400 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-07 Rental Removed $1,400 NTREIS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-29 Listed for Rent $1,400 NTREIS
• 2024-07-10 Listed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-25 Rental Removed $1,400 NTREIS
• 2023-07-16 Listed for Rent $1,400 NTREIS
• 2023-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-02-06 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-01-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-01-11 Price Changed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2022-12-15 Price Changed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2022-11-30 Listed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2022-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1980-05-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,538 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.