23534 Cinnamon Tree Ln · Houston, TX 77493

$349,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,168 sqft · SingleFamily · 54 Days on market

Built 2025 5,543 sqft lot $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Two-Story in the Heart of Katy Near Top Katy ISD Schools & Everyday Conveniences. The Marigold foyer opens into a bright, open kitchen that flows effortlessly into the casual dining room & soaring two-story family room filled with natural light. The first-floor primary suite offers a luxurious retreat with separate tub & walk-in shower. Upstairs, a generous game room and two additional bedrooms with a full bath create an ideal space for relaxing. This home features the AW Collection® Luxe, where striking green cabinetry, glossy finishes, and refined textures create a grand, sophisticated atmosphere perfect for elegant living. Bergamo offers resort-style amenities, walking trails along Bergamo Lake, a dog park, and is walking distance to top Katy ISD schools.

Key facts

• Casual dining room
• Separate tub
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• CASUAL DINING ROOM
• TWO-STORY FAMILY ROOM
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• SEPARATE TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Bergamo HOA; Annual HOA fee of $1,500; Community curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2025; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Fenced backyard; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13 x 13); Bedroom on first floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on second floor (12 x 11); Bedroom on second floor (14 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Quartz counters; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $349,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $401,313.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-749 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Stockdick J H (math 41% / reading 51%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,313 students, 55% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 27% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,029 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.00%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $401,313
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: -12.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23619 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,241 (+3%)	1mo	$319,990	$143	88
23611 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,337 (+8%)	2mo	$427,110	$183	84
23538 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,336 (+8%)	1mo	$404,003	$173	81
23511 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,336 (+8%)	1mo	$427,192	$183	80
23607 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.03mi	4/3.0	1,880 (-13%)	1mo	$414,878	$221	75
23642 Red Rowan Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0	1,880 (-13%)	1mo	$420,155	$223	71
23627 Red Rowan	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,880 (-13%)	1mo	$374,990	$199	68
23714 Padova Gardens Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,932 (-11%)	0mo	$310,990	$161	66
4515 Mondial Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,247 (+4%)	0mo	$315,000	$140	62
4527 Mondial Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0	2,002 (-8%)	0mo	$314,990	$157	56
4611 Tuscan Lily Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,946 (-10%)	2mo	$309,900	$159	52
4510 Terrazza Verde Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,999 (-8%)	1mo	$299,990	$150	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-120,611
• Equity at exit: $59,837

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-196,812
• Equity at exit: $34,698

Cash invested: $112,368 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,720 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,105
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$502 /mo · $6,020/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-749

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,669

Max offer price $292,880

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-472	-5% $-611	+0% $-749	+5% $-888	+10% $-1,027
Rent	-10% $-964	-5% $-857	+0% $-749	+5% $-642	+10% $-534
Rate	-1.0pp $-547	-0.5pp $-647	base $-749	+0.5pp $-853	+1.0pp $-959

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,328
• Closing costs: $12,039
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5103 Visionary Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1692	$3,096	$1.83	3d	9	0.14mi
23030 Cunningham Falls Trl Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1213	$2,900	$2.39	0d	242	0.38mi
5022 Brewcastle Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,100	$1.38	45d	1	0.52mi
5710 Fresh View Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2313	$2,495	$1.08	3d	1	0.60mi
22865 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,759	$1.37	17d	1	0.65mi
5007 Royal Amber Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2270	$1,975	$0.87	45d	1	0.66mi
22855 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,399	$1.44	14d	1	0.67mi
22824 Frassino Pl Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	3d	1	0.69mi
22841 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,249	$1.54	7d	1	0.70mi
22851 Terazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1740	$3,304	$1.90	0d	1	0.70mi
22808 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,499	$1.25	0d	1	0.72mi
22738 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	21d	1	0.79mi
22737 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,649	$1.41	45d	1	0.79mi
22728 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,369	$1.42	26d	1	0.80mi
22722 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,559	$1.27	18d	1	0.81mi
22716 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,439	$1.31	7d	1	0.82mi
22719 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	19d	1	0.82mi
22712 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,179	$1.49	26d	1	0.82mi
22718 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,439	$1.30	7d	1	0.82mi
24246 Palomino Sage Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,305	$1.24	46d	1	0.82mi
22720 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	19d	1	0.82mi
22717 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	7d	1	0.83mi
22713 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,419	$1.45	14d	1	0.83mi
22622 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	0.84mi
22624 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.84mi
22626 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,699	$1.35	45d	1	0.85mi
22616 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,539	$1.36	17d	1	0.86mi
22614 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	14d	1	0.86mi
22628 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,659	$1.32	17d	1	0.86mi
22629 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	7d	1	0.87mi
22627 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	7d	1	0.88mi
22617 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,279	$1.56	45d	1	0.88mi
22615 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.88mi
22613 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	0.89mi
22611 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.89mi
4411 Andorno Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2094	$2,221	$1.06	26d	1	0.99mi
22843 Castello Lakes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,148	$1.06	24d	1	1.10mi
4019 Ventana Ridge Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1622	$2,497	$1.54	0d	5	1.14mi
4110 Rapallo Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2300	$2,600	$1.13	7d	1	1.21mi
4231 Reese Ravine Ln Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2812	$3,000	$1.07	19d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,990 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,990 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,990 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,990 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,990 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,990 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,990 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,990 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,990 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,990 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,990 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,990 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $349,990 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Beautiful Two-Story in the Heart of Katy Near Top Katy ISD Schools & Everyday Conveniences. The Marigold foyer opens into a bright, open kitchen that flows effortlessly into the casual dining room & soaring two-story family room filled with natural light. The first-floor primary suite offers a luxurious retreat with separate tub & walk-in shower. Upstairs, a generous game room and two additional bedrooms with a full bath create an ideal space for relaxing. This home features the AW Collection® Luxe, where striking green cabinetry, glossy finishes, and refined textures create a grand, sophisticated atmosphere perfect for elegant living. Bergamo offers resort-style amenities, walking trails along Bergamo Lake, a dog park, and is walking distance to top Katy ISD schools.

16. 2026-05-12
    price $349,990 800-char remark
17. 2026-05-01
    price $389,990 800-char remark
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $389,990 Active 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Beautiful Two-Story in the Heart of Katy Near Top Katy ISD Schools & Everyday Conveniences. The Marigold foyer opens into a bright, open kitchen that flows effortlessly into the casual dining room & soaring two-story family room filled with natural light. The first-floor primary suite offers a luxurious retreat with separate tub & walk-in shower. Upstairs, a generous game room and two additional bedrooms with a full bath create an ideal space for relaxing. This home features the AW Collection® Luxe, where striking green cabinetry, glossy finishes, and refined textures create a grand, sophisticated atmosphere perfect for elegant living. Bergamo offers resort-style amenities, walking trails along Bergamo Lake, a dog park, and is walking distance to top Katy ISD schools.

19. 2026-04-28
    listed $432,918 Active 800-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,480
• − Property taxes: −$6,020
• − Insurance: −$2,007
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,611
• − Management: −$2,611
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$11,675
• Taxable loss: −$16,260
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,902
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $349,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $389,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $389,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Listed $432,918 HARMLS