2700 Bradshaw Rd · Elliston, VA 24087

$136,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1996 0.61 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice home on the North Fork Creek. Land lays well with the creek in your back yard. Paved driveway and semi private.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Private lot
• 0.61 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $617 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $136k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#342 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Montgomery County Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastern Montgomery Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 385 students, 76% FRL); Shawsville Middle (math 41% / reading 56%, grade C-, #244 of 342 statewide, top 72%, 208 students, 74% FRL); Eastern Montgomery High (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #107 of 319 statewide, top 37%, 282 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 32% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 323 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($940 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $136k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.45%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $113,366
• Equity at exit: $122,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.95×
• Total profit: $302,878
• Equity at exit: $264,218

Cash invested: $38,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24087

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,866 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$713
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,040/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,084

Max offer price $136,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,000
• Closing costs: $4,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $136,000 Active
3. 2010-05-27
   soldstatus $79,000 116-char remark

   Show marketing remark (116 chars)

   Nice home on the North Fork Creek. Land lays well with the creek in your back yard. Paved driveway and semi private.

4. 2010-05-06
   soldstatus $115,000
5. 2010-03-11
   listed $73,000 116-char remark

   Show marketing remark (116 chars)

   Nice home on the North Fork Creek. Land lays well with the creek in your back yard. Paved driveway and semi private.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$75/yr (+$6/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,618
• − Property taxes: −$1,040
• − Insurance: −$680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,791
• − Management: −$1,791
• − Depreciation: −$3,956
• Taxable income: $5,512
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,323
• After-tax cash flow: $6,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102520
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,618
• Composite: 53.6/100
• National rank: #1440
• State rank: #47 of 131 in VA

Livability — Elliston

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #13622

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,948

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,748 people
• By 2030: 110,301 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 115,652 · +9.4%
• By 2050: 119,651 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 126,005 · +19.2%
• By 2100: 129,771 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 47.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: 3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+1.3 2012: R+0.2 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.65%
• Current HPI: 258.6535
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+86.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-04-21 Listed $136,000 MLSRV
• 2010-05-27 Sold (MLS) $79,000 MLSRV
• 2010-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2010-03-11 Listed $73,000 MLSRV

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,040 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.