615 Minna St · San Francisco, CA 94103

$2,495,000

12 bd · 7.0 ba · 4,704 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1906 1,999 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 6 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Sold AS-IS by fidicuary, court confirmation required. 4 units with 3 protected tenants and 1 vacant, plus sub area with code violations. There are approximately 15+ notices of abatement recorded by the City of SF - the property is in need of lots of work.

Key facts

• Nest thermostats
• New heating systems
• New appliances

Tags

• VACANT 6 UNIT BUILDING
• VIBRANT SOMA DISTRICT
• NEW APPLIANCES
• TANKLESS WATER HEATERS
• NEW HEATING SYSTEMS
• NEST THERMOSTATS

🏗️ New construction. The $2,495,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $2,116,800.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6 × 2-bed/0.7-bath units multifamily listed at $2.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($109k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($28k rent vs $2.50M).
• Recommended offer: $2.35M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.5%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $28,446/mo this rent would consume 293% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 2666% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $120k of equity ($15k loan paydown + $105k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $593k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$192k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.35M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $600k; list at $2.50M implies a 316% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $2,345,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.38%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,116,800
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
615 Minna St	0.00mi	13/4.0 (+1)	4,704 (0%)	1mo	$2,400,000	$510	82
984 Harrison St	0.38mi	12/5.0	4,089 (-13%)	3mo	$1,840,000	$450	50
24-28 Rausch St	0.12mi	12/1.0	4,315 (-8%)	21mo	$1,000,000	$232	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.96% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $1,211,697
• Equity at exit: $1,194,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.95×
• Total profit: $3,525,574
• Equity at exit: $2,057,989

Cash invested: $592,704 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94103

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Rents YoY: 15.5%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 43.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $28,446 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,101
• Tax from tax record: −$1,409 /mo · $16,910/yr
• Insurance: −$882
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,974
• Net cashflow: $9,080

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,952

Max offer price $2,116,800

Occupancy floor 63%

6-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 6× units	2	0.7	$28,446
Total (6 units)			$28,446

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $529,200
• Closing costs: $63,504
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-29
   listed $2,495,000 Active
3. 2023-07-24
   historical
4. 2023-07-18
   listed
5. 2013-08-19
   soldstatus $600,000 Closed 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Sold AS-IS by fidicuary, court confirmation required. 4 units with 3 protected tenants and 1 vacant, plus sub area with code violations. There are approximately 15+ notices of abatement recorded by the City of SF - the property is in need of lots of work.

6. 2013-08-19
   soldstatus $600,000

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Sold AS-IS by fidicuary, court confirmation required. 4 units with 3 protected tenants and 1 vacant, plus sub area with code violations. There are approximately 15+ notices of abatement recorded by the City of SF - the property is in need of lots of work.

7. 2013-06-23
   status Pending 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Sold AS-IS by fidicuary, court confirmation required. 4 units with 3 protected tenants and 1 vacant, plus sub area with code violations. There are approximately 15+ notices of abatement recorded by the City of SF - the property is in need of lots of work.

8. 2013-03-27
   price $529,950 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Sold AS-IS by fidicuary, court confirmation required. 4 units with 3 protected tenants and 1 vacant, plus sub area with code violations. There are approximately 15+ notices of abatement recorded by the City of SF - the property is in need of lots of work.

9. 2013-03-27
   listed $525,950 Active 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Sold AS-IS by fidicuary, court confirmation required. 4 units with 3 protected tenants and 1 vacant, plus sub area with code violations. There are approximately 15+ notices of abatement recorded by the City of SF - the property is in need of lots of work.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $16,910 · $1,409/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,962 · $1,580/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,052/yr (+$171/mo · 12.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥79°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $341,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$118,574
• − Property taxes: −$16,910
• − Insurance: −$10,584
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$27,308
• − Management: −$27,308
• − Depreciation: −$61,580
• Taxable income: $79,088
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18,981
• After-tax cash flow: $89,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,964
• Household income: $116,438
• Rent vs Own: 80.3% rent · 19.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2666.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Asian 31% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 36% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 16% Chinese 9% Tagalog/Filipino 6%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.96%
• Current HPI: 175.4945
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.50%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+374.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $2,495,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2023-07-24 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2023-07-18 Listed for Rent — APPFOLIO
• 2013-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $600,000 Public Records
• 2013-08-19 Sold (MLS) $600,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2013-06-23 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2013-03-27 Price Changed $529,950 San Francisco MLS
• 2013-03-27 Listed $525,950 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $16,910 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.