1212 Canal St · Odessa, TX 79765

$294,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,684 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 6,882 sqft lot Est $276k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Like-new home built in 2023 featuring durable vinyl flooring throughout, neutral paint colors, and an open concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The area offers a cozy gas fireplace, while the kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living spaces. Enjoy the added bonus of a Christmas light package including lights, making decorating easy year after year. Outside, you'll find a large backyard with full sod and a covered patio ideal for relaxing or hosting guests.

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Vinyl flooring
• Large backyard

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• LARGE BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Mardi Gras Estates
• Financial info: $3,444.96 annual tax amount

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One-story
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on lot of about 0.158 acres
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Gas log fireplace in living room; Water softener; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-117/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lee Buice El (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 843 students, 54% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 431 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,775 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,176
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8914 Ratliff Ridge Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+4%)	22mo	$289,000	$164	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-54,210
• Equity at exit: $43,836

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-71,246
• Equity at exit: $25,420

Cash invested: $82,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79765

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,458 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,542
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,445/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,470

Max offer price $292,282

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $73	+0% $-10	+5% $-93	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-204	-5% $-107	+0% $-10	+5% $87	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $138	-0.5pp $65	base $-10	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,500
• Closing costs: $8,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1200 Cajun St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1102	$2,300	$2.09	21d	1	0.08mi
1115 Canal St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1833	$2,400	$1.31	44d	1	0.16mi
1102 Canal St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2095	$2,600	$1.24	21d	1	0.20mi
1320 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,800	$1.93	44d	1	0.20mi
1218 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	21d	1	0.22mi
1327 Masquerade Blvd Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,700	$1.96	45d	1	0.22mi
1210 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,600	$1.64	44d	1	0.24mi
1508 E 89th St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2056	$2,700	$1.31	21d	1	0.32mi
1028 E 90th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,145	$1.47	14d	1	0.34mi
915 Canal St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2080	$3,100	$1.49	21d	1	0.36mi
1023 E 90th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,500	$1.42	14d	1	0.37mi
88 Maverick Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,200	$1.57	44d	1	0.39mi
912 Purdue St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1773	$2,400	$1.35	44d	1	0.49mi
908 Purdue St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,500	$1.69	44d	1	0.50mi
8633 Yale Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$2,500	$1.82	14d	1	0.51mi
8633 Yale Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,500	$1.80	21d	1	0.51mi
9031 Antelope Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1923	$2,500	$1.30	44d	1	0.51mi
1025 Pine Leaf Pl Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	44d	1	0.56mi
9017 Pepper Grass Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,500	$1.41	44d	1	0.59mi
1226 E 92nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$2,250	$1.47	14d	1	0.72mi
8732 Rainbow Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	44d	1	0.78mi
800 E 92nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	2005	$2,550	$1.27	44d	1	0.89mi
1109 Wagon Way Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,400	$1.58	14d	1	0.89mi
1303 Terra Cotta St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,999	$1.45	44d	1	0.93mi
493 Chitalpa Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$2,500	$1.99	44d	1	0.95mi
1306 E 94th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,350	$1.58	21d	1	0.97mi
8623 Holiday Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,800	$1.46	44d	1	1.05mi
900 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,300	$1.40	44d	1	1.09mi
808 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,350	$1.59	44d	1	1.10mi
8610 Lamar Ave Unit NA Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	14d	1	1.14mi
819 E 97th Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,350	$1.44	14d	1	1.17mi
713 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,500	$1.60	44d	1	1.18mi
9219 Holiday Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	2118	$2,800	$1.32	44d	1	1.22mi
216 E 91st St Odessa, TX	3.0	3.0	1602	$2,500	$1.56	14d	1	1.22mi
310 E 95th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,300	$1.65	21d	1	1.37mi
618 Juniper Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,700	$1.68	14d	1	1.37mi
9914 Rainbow Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$3,200	$1.55	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-06
   listed $294,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,445 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,380 · $448/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,935/yr (+$161/mo · 56.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,469
• − Property taxes: −$3,445
• − Insurance: −$1,470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,359
• − Management: −$2,359
• − Depreciation: −$8,553
• Taxable loss: −$5,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,239
• After-tax cash flow: $1,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2023-built home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a good layout. It's move-in ready with minimal updates needed to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,904
• Household income: $104,965
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.68%
• Current HPI: 173.4252
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — PBBOR
• 2026-04-24 Contingent — PBBOR
• 2026-04-06 Listed $294,000 PBBOR

Property tax history

+103.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,445 · -21.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.