None · Williamsville, NY 14221

$197,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 893 sqft · Condo · 16 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEUTRAL DECOR IN THIS 2ND FLOOR UNIT W/ CANVAS COVERED PATIO. THIS LOCATION DOES NOT BACK UP TO THE BUSY STREET MAKING THE BALCONY A PERFECT RESPITE FROM A BUSY DAY. FULLY WHITE APPLIANCED KIT. W/ NEWER CERAMIC FLOOR. BATH OFFERS NEWER CERAMIC FLOOR & NEWER MIRRORS & VANITY TOP. GREAT AMENITIES & CONVENIENT AREA.

Key facts

• Brand-new cabinets
• Oakbrook condominium
• Listed 15 days

Tags

• OAKBROOK CONDOMINIUM
• RENOVATED UPPER-LEFT UNIT
• GORGEOUS HARDWOOD FLOORING
• BRIGHT LED RECESSED LIGHTING
• FULLY UPDATED KITCHEN
• BRAND-NEW CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $197k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $197k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.5% in Williamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#44 in NY, #693 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $197k implies a 339% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $194,045 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-11,860
• Equity at exit: $29,373

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $28,154
• Equity at exit: $17,033

Cash invested: $55,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$246 /mo · $2,955/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,723

Max offer price $197,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $385	-5% $317	+0% $249	+5% $180	+10% $112
Rent	-10% $88	-5% $168	+0% $249	+5% $329	+10% $410
Rate	-1.0pp $348	-0.5pp $299	base $249	+0.5pp $197	+1.0pp $146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,250
• Closing costs: $5,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
990 Hopkins Rd Unit G Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	12d	1	0.91mi
1325 N Forest Rd Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	870	$1,748	$2.01	3d	9	1.04mi
23 Northwood Dr Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$2,145	$2.68	3d	1	1.45mi
255 Evans St Williamsville, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,350	$2.41	3d	13	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $197,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $197,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 695-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $197,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,035
• − Property taxes: −$2,955
• − Insurance: −$985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,956
• − Management: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$5,731
• Taxable loss: −$164
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$39
• After-tax cash flow: $3,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready condo is in fair condition with good updates, but a fresh coat of paint and some minor updates could significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both New flooring — Hardwood flooring is durable and adds value
• Both New window treatments — Updated window treatments improve curb appeal and natural light
• Both New lighting fixtures — Modern lighting fixtures enhance the home's ambiance and value
• Both New carpet or rug — A new carpet or rug can improve comfort and aesthetics
• Both New curtains — New curtains can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New flooring — Hardwood flooring is durable and adds value ↑
• Both New window treatments — Updated window treatments improve curb appeal and natural light ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Modern lighting fixtures enhance the home's ambiance and value ↑
• Both New carpet or rug — A new carpet or rug can improve comfort and aesthetics ↑
• Both New curtains — New curtains can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — Williamsville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #693

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,255
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+302.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $197,000 FSBO.com
• 2001-05-23 Sold (MLS) $44,900 WNYREIS
• 2001-02-28 Listed $48,900 WNYREIS