1030 SW 11th St #33 · Hermiston, OR 97838

$45,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Manufactured public records · 247 Days on market

Built 1978 $48/sqft · 42% below area Est $78k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-kept mobile home offering comfort, convenience, and character! Step inside to find a functional layout featuring two spacious bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a bright living area perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen comes fully equipped-all appliances included-making it move-in ready from day one. Enjoy the extra living space in the enclosed back porch

Key facts

• Enclosed back porch
• Bright living area
• Functional layout

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ENCLOSED BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $756 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.5% vs local median 2.7% in Hermiston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#158 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime D.
• Hermiston SD 8 (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #36 of 183 in OR (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 205 units permitted in Umatilla County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Umatilla County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.00%
• DSCR: 4.20
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,021
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -42.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1030 SW 11th St #70	0.00mi	2/2.0	924 (-2%)	6mo	$82,000	$89	92
1030 SW 11th St #91	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-2%)	7mo	$80,000	$87	87
1030 SW 11th St #94	0.00mi	2/2.0	930 (-1%)	14mo	$80,000	$86	87
1030 SW 11th St #89	0.00mi	2/2.0	938 (0%)	21mo	$95,000	$101	82
1030 SW 11th St #23	0.12mi	2/2.0	924 (-2%)	20mo	$65,000	$70	76
1030 SW 11th St #36	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+13%)	7mo	$65,000	$62	73
1338 SW Debra Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+2%)	18mo	$215,000	$224	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $40,863
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.75×
• Total profit: $97,597
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97838

• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $332/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $756

Break-even live

Break-even rent $357

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1650 W Sunland Ave Hermiston, OR	2.0	1.0	760	$1,210	$1.59	13d	2	0.28mi
1105 SW 17th St Hermiston, OR	2.0	1.5	1075	$1,495	$1.39	13d	1	0.32mi
955 W Hermiston Ave Apt 4 Hermiston, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	44d	1	0.69mi
955 W Hermiston Ave Unit 9 Hermiston, OR	1.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	44d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 241 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 238 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 237 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 236 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 230 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 229 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 228 DOM
16. 2025-10-09
    listed $45,000 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Welcome to this well-kept mobile home offering comfort, convenience, and character! Step inside to find a functional layout featuring two spacious bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a bright living area perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen comes fully equipped-all appliances included-making it move-in ready from day one. Enjoy the extra living space in the enclosed back porch

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $332 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $436 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$105/yr (+$9/mo · 31.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$332
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,262
• − Management: −$1,262
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $8,863
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,127
• After-tax cash flow: $6,945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hermiston SD 8
• NCES district ID: 4106300
• Math proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,109
• Composite: 44.79/100
• National rank: #5948
• State rank: #36 of 183 in OR

Livability — Hermiston

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #9212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hermiston, OR
• City population: 27,979
• Population (ZIP): 27,979

Population outlook (Umatilla County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,329 people
• By 2030: 75,975 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 75,119 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 74,058 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 70,639 · -7.5%
• By 2100: 63,441 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 16% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Umatilla

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.8) · D 29.7% · R 67.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -37.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.8 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+35.6 2012: R+28.1 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.09%
• Current HPI: 212.1847
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-09 Listed $45,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $332 · +24.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.