212 Saddle Dr · Mission, TX 78574

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 420 sqft · Manufactured public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1988 1,698 sqft lot $131/sqft · at area comps Est $53k · at est. $38/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Wagon City North in Mission. Come see this Park Model Home on Land in Desirable 55+ Community – Fully Furnished & Move-In Ready! $55,000 / HOA $450/Yr. Welcome to easy living in this beautifully park model which offers comfort, convenience, and everything you need to start enjoying your next chapter right away. Property Highlights, fully furnished with furniture and appliances, bright and open living area, well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinetry and dining space, full bathroom and efficient layout designed for easy maintenance. Covered carport, storage shed and low maintenance yard. Storage shed has plenty of room to park a golf cart.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Ample cabinetry
• Dining space

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• MOVE-IN READY
• BRIGHT AND OPEN LIVING AREA
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• DINING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $545 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.49%
• DSCR: 2.89
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,826
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: 4.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Harness Dr	0.04mi	1/1.0 (-1)	415 (-1%)	9mo	$54,000	$130	83
221 Harness Dr	0.06mi	1/1.0 (-1)	420 (0%)	15mo	$48,000	$114	80
229 Harness Dr	0.07mi	1/1.0 (-1)	424 (+1%)	19mo	$59,900	$141	74
205 Saddle Dr	0.03mi	1/1.0 (-1)	408 (-3%)	22mo	$55,000	$135	71
203 Rim Dr	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	396 (-6%)	16mo	$57,000	$144	69
227 Saddle Dr	0.06mi	1/1.0 (-1)	400 (-5%)	22mo	$45,000	$113	66
213 Rim Dr	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	450 (+7%)	23mo	$55,000	$122	60
205 Harness Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	472 (+12%)	19mo	$50,000	$106	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $25,849
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.37×
• Total profit: $67,348
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78574

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $502

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $576	-5% $561	+0% $545	+5% $530	+10% $514
Rent	-10% $451	-5% $498	+0% $545	+5% $592	+10% $640
Rate	-1.0pp $573	-0.5pp $559	base $545	+0.5pp $531	+1.0pp $517

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-02-27
    listed $55,000 Active 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    Located in Wagon City North in Mission. Come see this Park Model Home on Land in Desirable 55+ Community – Fully Furnished & Move-In Ready! $55,000 / HOA $450/Yr. Welcome to easy living in this beautifully park model which offers comfort, convenience, and everything you need to start enjoying your next chapter right away. Property Highlights, fully furnished with furniture and appliances, bright and open living area, well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinetry and dining space, full bathroom and efficient layout designed for easy maintenance. Covered carport, storage shed and low maintenance yard. Storage shed has plenty of room to park a golf cart.

16. 2025-12-10
    listed $59,900 Active
17. 2021-02-11
    soldstatus
18. 2001-02-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $570 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,006 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$436/yr (+$36/mo · 76.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $6,040
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,450
• After-tax cash flow: $5,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,456
• Household income: $52,393
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 62% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 87%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 230.3323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $55,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $59,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2021-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $570 · +81.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.