10 Potash Rd #3 · Lincoln, NH 03251

$419,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 628 sqft · Condo public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1982 $669/sqft · 33% above area Est $526k · 20% under $350/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 level townhouse sits in a prime location in The Village of Loon, offering great views of the ski slopes at Loon Mountain and is just a short walk to the on-site swim and tennis club for you and your guests. The main level features a cozy living/dining area with a propane fireplace, galley kitchen, and a deck to take in the straight-on views of both North Peak and Loon Peak. The upper level is an open loft area that sleeps 4 and has a convenient 1/2 bath. The lower level is your primary suite with private bath and a glass slider that brings in a nice amount of natural light from the southern exposure. With shuttle service to Loon in the winter and the availability of the swim club, this home makes a great base for family adventures throughout the year. Being sold fully furnished and equipped. Showings must be scheduled in advance.

Key facts

• Galley kitchen
• Deck
• Great views

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• GREAT VIEWS
• ON-SITE SWIM AND TENNIS CLUB
• COZY LIVING DINING AREA
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (57.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (50.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (57.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 4.9% in Lincoln — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Lincoln-Woodstock School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #140 of 171 in NH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($382k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $315k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $177,046 (57.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.03%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 16.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $525,672
• List price: $419,900
• Delta: -20.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-54,477
• Equity at exit: $170,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-48,383
• Equity at exit: $248,387

Cash invested: $117,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03251

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 16.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,460/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-1,375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,817

Max offer price $177,046

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,975
• Closing costs: $12,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,900 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,900 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $419,900 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,900 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $419,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $419,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $419,900 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $419,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $419,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $419,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-03-12
    listed $419,900 Active 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    This 3 level townhouse sits in a prime location in The Village of Loon, offering great views of the ski slopes at Loon Mountain and is just a short walk to the on-site swim and tennis club for you and your guests. The main level features a cozy living/dining area with a propane fireplace, galley kitchen, and a deck to take in the straight-on views of both North Peak and Loon Peak. The upper level is an open loft area that sleeps 4 and has a convenient 1/2 bath. The lower level is your primary suite with private bath and a glass slider that brings in a nice amount of natural light from the southern exposure. With shuttle service to Loon in the winter and the availability of the swim club, this home makes a great base for family adventures throughout the year. Being sold fully furnished and equipped. Showings must be scheduled in advance.

16. 2025-06-19
    historical $13,500
17. 2025-05-15
    listed $13,500
18. 2021-05-21
    soldstatus $315,000 Closed 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Well cared for 1 bedroom plus loft 1 1/2 bath townhome located in the sought after Village of Loon. This town home offers an open concept dining and living area with a gas fireplace and magnificent view of Loons ski slopes. Lower level offers the master bedroom with full bath and the loft area offers a half bath. The onsite Village of Loon Health Club offers 2 indoor pools, 2 outdoor pools, jacuzzis, weight room, treadmills, tennis courts, game room with pool table and sauna. Shuttle bus service to the slopes and an excellent rental property. Being sold furnished less personal items.

19. 2021-04-19
    status Pending 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Well cared for 1 bedroom plus loft 1 1/2 bath townhome located in the sought after Village of Loon. This town home offers an open concept dining and living area with a gas fireplace and magnificent view of Loons ski slopes. Lower level offers the master bedroom with full bath and the loft area offers a half bath. The onsite Village of Loon Health Club offers 2 indoor pools, 2 outdoor pools, jacuzzis, weight room, treadmills, tennis courts, game room with pool table and sauna. Shuttle bus service to the slopes and an excellent rental property. Being sold furnished less personal items.

20. 2021-03-11
    listed $329,000 Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Well cared for 1 bedroom plus loft 1 1/2 bath townhome located in the sought after Village of Loon. This town home offers an open concept dining and living area with a gas fireplace and magnificent view of Loons ski slopes. Lower level offers the master bedroom with full bath and the loft area offers a half bath. The onsite Village of Loon Health Club offers 2 indoor pools, 2 outdoor pools, jacuzzis, weight room, treadmills, tennis courts, game room with pool table and sauna. Shuttle bus service to the slopes and an excellent rental property. Being sold furnished less personal items.

21. 2020-03-27
    soldstatus $205,000 Closed
22. 2020-03-01
    status Pending
23. 2020-02-27
    listed $209,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,460 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,307 · $526/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,847/yr (+$237/mo · 82.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥83°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,521
• − Property taxes: −$3,460
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$12,215
• Taxable loss: −$24,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,895
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln-Woodstock School District
• NCES district ID: 3304260
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #9328
• State rank: #140 of 171 in NH

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #9736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,484

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 12% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Chinese 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.19%
• Current HPI: 531.2395
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $419,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-06-19 Rental Removed $13,500 NEREN
• 2025-05-15 Listed for Rent $13,500 NEREN
• 2021-05-21 Sold (MLS) $315,000 PrimeMLS
• 2021-04-19 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2021-03-11 Listed $329,000 PrimeMLS
• 2020-03-27 Sold (MLS) $205,000 PrimeMLS
• 2020-03-01 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2020-02-27 Listed $209,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,460 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.