15821 Orlan Brook Dr #37 · Orland Park, IL 60462

$185,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,000 sqft · Condo public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1978 $328/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FIRST FLOOR UNIT WITH ENCLOSED DECK AREA. NICE OPEN SPACED KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTERS, BEAUTIFUL WOOD CABINETS, DISHWASHER, MICROWAVE, STOVE AND STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR AND GARBAGE DISPOSAL. LARGE LIVING ROOM WITH DINING AREA AND EXIT TO DECK AREA. BEDROOMS LARGE. MUST SEE

Key facts

• Enclosed deck area
• Open spaced kitchen
• Dishwasher

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR UNIT
• ENCLOSED DECK AREA
• OPEN SPACED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• DISHWASHER
• MICROWAVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $186k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $186k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.5% in Orland Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in IL, #529 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+.
• Cons Hsd 230 (suburban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #146 of 620 in IL (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $103k; list at $186k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $180,323 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.69%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-28,865
• Equity at exit: $27,718

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-39,397
• Equity at exit: $16,073

Cash invested: $52,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60462

• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,189 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$975
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$232 /mo · $2,788/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$328
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,041

Max offer price $185,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $181	+0% $117	+5% $53	+10% $-12
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $30	+0% $117	+5% $203	+10% $290
Rate	-1.0pp $210	-0.5pp $164	base $117	+0.5pp $69	+1.0pp $20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,475
• Closing costs: $5,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15834 Orlan Brook Dr Unit 3E Orland Park, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	18d	1	0.06mi
15826 Farm Hill Dr Orland Park, IL	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	11d	1	0.14mi
15502 Orlan Brook Dr #222 Orland Park, IL	2.0	2.0	1069	$2,500	$2.34	8d	1	0.30mi
15502 Orlan Brook Dr #222 Orland Park, IL	2.0	2.0	1069	$2,700	$2.53	25d	1	0.30mi
16180 Apple Ln #2 Tinley Park, IL	3.0	2.5	1250	$2,900	$2.32	6d	1	0.52mi
9309 Wherry Ln Orland Park, IL	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,525	$1.68	25d	1	0.86mi
16450 Cherry Hill Ave Tinley Park, IL	3.0	2.0	1370	$3,100	$2.26	8d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $328 · $3,936/yr
• Likely covers: trash
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $185,900 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $185,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $185,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $185,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-04-26
   listed $185,900 Active
8. 2017-03-17
   soldstatus $103,000
9. 2011-04-29
   historical
10. 2010-11-26
    price Price Change
11. 2010-08-01
    price Price Change
12. 2010-05-25
    price Price Change
13. 2010-03-15
    listed New
14. 1989-05-12
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,413
• − Property taxes: −$2,788
• − Insurance: −$930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,102
• − Management: −$2,102
• − HOA: −$3,936
• − Depreciation: −$5,408
• Taxable loss: −$1,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$338
• After-tax cash flow: $1,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cons Hsd 230
• NCES district ID: 1708400
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $73,953
• Composite: 34.29/100
• National rank: #5244
• State rank: #146 of 620 in IL

Livability — Orland Park

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #529

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orland Park, IL
• County: Cook County · 4,486,803 people
• City population: 41,456
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 41,456
• Household income: $96,526
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 668.0

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Armenian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 7% Arabic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.71%
• Current HPI: 203.5329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+147.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Listed $185,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records
• 2011-04-29 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-26 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-01 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-25 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-15 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $350 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.