127 N Mulberry St · Florence, AZ 85132

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2004 6,267 sqft lot Est $278k · 17% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hard to find 3 bedroom 2 bath home in Florence with a 2 car garage!! Popular open floor plan concept, featuring a full master bath. No HOA fees to deal with! Conveniently located near the Historical District of Florence.

Key facts

• Tile flooring
• Outdoor space
• 6,267 sq ft lot

Tags

• OUTDOOR SPACE
• TILE FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: VA
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Gravel/stone front yard; Grass in back yard; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Solar panels

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.1% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Florence K-8 (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #742 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 771 students, 56% FRL); Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 737 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $230k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,452 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.79%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,432
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
553 W 12th St	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,309 (+6%)	8mo	$285,000	$218	82
324 W 11th St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-2%)	13mo	$272,512	$226	79
232 S Willow St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,226 (-0%)	12mo	$228,000	$186	74
212 S Ash St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-7%)	10mo	$263,575	$229	69
632 W 16th St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,297 (+5%)	14mo	$256,500	$198	69
633 N Pinal St	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,214 (-2%)	1mo	$230,000	$189	65
430 W Poston Cir	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,057 (-14%)	3mo	$175,000	$166	60
184 S Mulberry St	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,061 (-14%)	10mo	$250,000	$236	54
1041 W West Virginia Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,244 (+1%)	16mo	$316,900	$255	54
1066 W West Virginia Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,244 (+1%)	18mo	$312,900	$252	52
175 S Matilda St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-12%)	1mo	$243,000	$225	50
540 S Maricopa Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,115 (-10%)	15mo	$299,900	$269	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-34,498
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-35,387
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 737
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,187/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,773

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $161	+0% $96	+5% $31	+10% $-34
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $21	+0% $96	+5% $171	+10% $245
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $154	base $96	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $-24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
144 S Mulberry St Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,495	$1.06	45d	1	0.15mi
479 W Geib Ave Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,495	$1.30	0d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $230,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    price $245,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    listed $259,000 Active
19. 2018-01-31
    soldstatus $126,000 Closed 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Hard to find 3 bedroom 2 bath home in Florence with a 2 car garage!! Popular open floor plan concept, featuring a full master bath. No HOA fees to deal with! Conveniently located near the Historical District of Florence.

20. 2018-01-31
    soldstatus $126,000

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Hard to find 3 bedroom 2 bath home in Florence with a 2 car garage!! Popular open floor plan concept, featuring a full master bath. No HOA fees to deal with! Conveniently located near the Historical District of Florence.

21. 2017-12-06
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Hard to find 3 bedroom 2 bath home in Florence with a 2 car garage!! Popular open floor plan concept, featuring a full master bath. No HOA fees to deal with! Conveniently located near the Historical District of Florence.

22. 2017-12-01
    listed $130,000 Active 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Hard to find 3 bedroom 2 bath home in Florence with a 2 car garage!! Popular open floor plan concept, featuring a full master bath. No HOA fees to deal with! Conveniently located near the Historical District of Florence.

23. 2005-10-06
    soldstatus $123,900
24. 2005-09-08
    historical
25. 2005-01-20
    listed $119,900
26. 2004-07-01
    soldstatus $580,700
27. 2003-06-27
    soldstatus $555,637
28. 2000-11-17
    soldstatus $1,250,000
29. 1999-12-30
    soldstatus $850,000
30. 1998-11-13
    soldstatus $270,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,518 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$331/yr (+$28/mo · 27.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,187
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$2,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$675
• After-tax cash flow: $1,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-14.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $230,000 ARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $245,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $259,000 ARMLS
• 2018-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-31 Sold (MLS) $126,000 ARMLS
• 2017-12-06 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-12-01 Listed $130,000 ARMLS
• 2005-10-06 Sold (MLS) $123,900 ARMLS
• 2005-09-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-01-20 Listed $119,900 ARMLS
• 2004-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $580,700 Public Records
• 2003-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $555,637 Public Records
• 2000-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $1,250,000 Public Records
• 1999-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $850,000 Public Records
• 1998-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,187 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.