103 Johnny Rawls Rd · Mendenhall, MS 39114

$165,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,175 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1985 ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this brick home with lots of potential that is perfectly situated on a spacious 1-acre lot in Mendenhall. This property combines the comfort of county living with the convenience of being close to Highway 49. Inside you will find 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths with approximately 2600 sq. ft. Located outside is a 30 x 36ft shop with power and roll-up door. New outside air unit. If you've been searching for a place with space, comfort, and country charm, this Mendenhall property is a must see!

Key facts

• Spacious 1-acre lot
• 30 x 36ft shop
• New outside air unit

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• SPACIOUS 1-ACRE LOT
• 30 X 36FT SHOP
• NEW OUTSIDE AIR UNIT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 2 carport spaces
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Workshop on property; Approximately 1 acre lot

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Mendenhall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#220 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Simpson County School District (rural): math 18% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #90 of 130 in MS (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Simpson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Simpson County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,885 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.25%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $463,275
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Jolisabi Rd	0.13mi	4/3.0	1,880 (-14%)	4mo	$399,900	$213	60
123 L & B Way	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,319 (+7%)	1mo	$450,000	$194	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $95,314
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.98×
• Total profit: $276,178
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39114

• Home prices YoY: 7.9%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $537/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,239

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $134	+0% $87	+5% $40	+10% $-7
Rent	-10% $-20	-5% $34	+0% $87	+5% $140	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $129	base $87	+0.5pp $44	+1.0pp $1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $165,000
3. 2026-04-22
   status Active
4. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-13
   status Active
6. 2025-11-17
   status Pending
7. 2025-10-31
   price $199,000
8. 2025-10-13
   listed $219,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $537 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$766/yr (+$64/mo · 142.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$537
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$434
• After-tax cash flow: $1,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Simpson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803990
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,826
• Composite: 17.46/100
• National rank: #9063
• State rank: #90 of 130 in MS

Livability — Mendenhall

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #19070

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,553

Population outlook (Simpson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,197 people
• By 2030: 25,474 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 23,811 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 22,024 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 17,701 · -32.4%
• By 2100: 13,732 · -47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 39% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Simpson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.4% · R 68.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+30.4 2016: R+30.9 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.04%
• Current HPI: 286.42
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-24.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — HAAR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $165,000 HAAR
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — HAAR
• 2026-04-09 Pending — HAAR
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — HAAR
• 2025-11-17 Pending — HAAR
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $199,000 HAAR
• 2025-10-13 Listed $219,000 HAAR

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $537 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.