Plan 2824 Plan · Roman Forest, TX 77357

$280,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,783 sqft · SingleFamily · 74 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to popular restaurants * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Planned playground * Planned splash pad

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Primary suite
• Storage space

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• STORAGE SPACE
• DINING ROOM
• GAME ROOM
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

🏗️ New construction. The $280,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $329,142.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $281k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-507 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,750 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.60%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,142
• List price: $280,995
• Delta: -14.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-91,703
• Equity at exit: $49,076

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-145,011
• Equity at exit: $28,458

Cash invested: $92,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,726
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,937/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,879

Max offer price $255,778

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-280	-5% $-393	+0% $-507	+5% $-621	+10% $-734
Rent	-10% $-684	-5% $-595	+0% $-507	+5% $-419	+10% $-330
Rate	-1.0pp $-341	-0.5pp $-423	base $-507	+0.5pp $-592	+1.0pp $-679

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,286
• Closing costs: $9,874
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,995 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,995 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,995 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,995 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,995 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,995 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $280,995 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,995 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,995 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,995 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,995 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,995 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,995 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,995 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $290,995 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    * Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to popular restaurants * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Planned playground * Planned splash pad

16. 2026-05-12
    price $287,995 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    * Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to popular restaurants * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Planned playground * Planned splash pad

17. 2026-04-28
    price $297,995 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    * Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to popular restaurants * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Planned playground * Planned splash pad

18. 2026-04-16
    price $312,995 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    * Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to popular restaurants * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Planned playground * Planned splash pad

19. 2026-04-08
    listed $327,995 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    * Downstairs primary suite * Kitchen breakfast bar * Extra storage space * Separate dining room * Game room * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to popular restaurants * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Planned playground * Planned splash pad

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,437
• − Property taxes: −$4,937
• − Insurance: −$1,646
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,148
• − Management: −$2,148
• − Depreciation: −$9,575
• Taxable loss: −$12,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,890
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, and the highest-ROI updates would be smart home integration, smart security, and smart lighting systems to enhance both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency
• Both Smart security system — Improves safety and appeal
• Both Smart lighting system — Enhances energy efficiency and ambiance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Smart security system — Improves safety and appeal ↑
• Both Smart lighting system — Enhances energy efficiency and ambiance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $290,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $287,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $297,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $312,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Listed $327,995 Zillow