4 Columbine Ave S · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$849,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1966 0.47 ac lot Est $763k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This lovely Hampton Bays residence sits on . 47 acres and offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a spacious deck, bocce court and room for a pool, all in a quiet cul de sac setting. An upgraded septic system adds value, and the adjacent lot is also available to purchase with the property.

Key facts

• Bocce court
• Spacious deck
• 0.47 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS DECK
• BOCCE COURT
• UPGRADED SEPTIC SYSTEM
• QUIET CUL DE SAC SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Water connected
• Home design: Single-wide manufactured home on land; Two levels
• Construction: Cedar construction
• Exterior features: Non-waterfront property; Measured living area

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Two levels (total rooms include bedrooms) — includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Open kitchen; Washer/dryer hookup; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $849k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $849k).
• Recommended offer: $836k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,573/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($836k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $836,265 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.29%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $763,224
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Fanning Ave	0.44mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,086 (+1%)	16mo	$920,000	$847	58
62 Squiretown Rd	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-2%)	23mo	$600,000	$568	49
33A Fanning Ave Unit A	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,178 (+9%)	23mo	$780,000	$662	40
104 Fanning Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,138 (+6%)	19mo	$649,000	$570	33
1 The Cres	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+11%)	19mo	$850,000	$708	32
10 Bittersweet Ave S	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,228 (+14%)	14mo	$927,500	$755	31
162 Wakeman Rd	0.62mi	2/3.0 (-1)	963 (-11%)	23mo	$920,000	$955	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $55,255
• Equity at exit: $126,589

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $461,014
• Equity at exit: $73,406

Cash invested: $237,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,573 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,452
• Tax from tax record: −$521 /mo · $6,249/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,010
• Net cashflow: $2,236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,743

Max offer price $849,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,717	-5% $2,476	+0% $2,236	+5% $1,996	+10% $1,756
Rent	-10% $1,480	-5% $1,858	+0% $2,236	+5% $2,614	+10% $2,992
Rate	-1.0pp $2,664	-0.5pp $2,452	base $2,236	+0.5pp $2,016	+1.0pp $1,792

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,250
• Closing costs: $25,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	25d	1	0.05mi
3 Debbie Trl Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1375	$5,500	$4.00	22d	1	0.15mi
20A Columbine Ave N Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1073	$10,000	$9.32	16d	1	0.62mi
111 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1474	$20,000	$13.57	6d	1	0.69mi
43B Old Squires Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$8,000	$6.67	16d	1	1.07mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	25d	1	1.14mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	44d	1	1.21mi
3 Windmill Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	997	$5,500	$5.52	0d	1	1.25mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	25d	1	1.27mi
38 Woodridge Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1398	$8,000	$5.72	25d	1	1.28mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	25d	1	1.36mi
12 Ridge Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$20,000	$22.22	44d	1	1.37mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	44d	1	1.46mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $849,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $849,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $849,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $849,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $849,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $849,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   status $849,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
9. 2026-03-30
   listed $849,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,249 · $521/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,298 · $858/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,050/yr (+$337/mo · 64.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $114,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,557
• − Property taxes: −$6,249
• − Insurance: −$4,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,190
• − Management: −$9,190
• − Depreciation: −$24,698
• Taxable income: $13,750
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,300
• After-tax cash flow: $23,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $849,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $6,249 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.