273 Regional Dr · Carneys Point, NJ 08069

$180,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,747 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1950 8,024 sqft lot $103/sqft · 24% below area Est $237k · 24% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 8,024 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 69 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $567 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.1% in Carneys Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#515 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Penns Grove-Carneys Point Regional School District (suburban): math 6% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #462 of 472 in NJ (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 95 units permitted in Salem County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Salem County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $180k implies a 429% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.49%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,405
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -24.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
280 Regional Dr	0.04mi	4/1.0	1,705 (-2%)	7mo	$166,500	$98	84
111 Lotus Ln	0.16mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,661 (-5%)	10mo	$250,000	$151	69
264 Dixie Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (+9%)	10mo	$216,500	$113	68
106 Snow Drop	0.19mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,624 (-7%)	12mo	$282,000	$174	60
20 Spring	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,620 (-7%)	1mo	$180,120	$111	58
100 Wisteria Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-10%)	9mo	$349,000	$223	57
15-1/2 N Miller Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,600 (-8%)	3mo	$225,500	$141	56
18 Spring St	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,882 (+8%)	9mo	$199,900	$106	49
60 N Dupont Rd	0.52mi	4/1.5	1,534 (-12%)	7mo	$320,000	$209	48
207 E Main St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,519 (-13%)	11mo	$285,000	$188	45
58 Cypress Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,612 (-8%)	11mo	$240,000	$149	44
411 Ives Ave	0.75mi	4/1.5	1,509 (-14%)	1mo	$303,000	$201	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,059
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $53,190
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08069

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,508 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$396 /mo · $4,750/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,791

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
258 Birch St Penns Grove, NJ	3.0	1.0	1114	$2,100	$1.89	10d	1	0.56mi
79 Delaware Ave Penns Grove, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,900	$1.46	1d	1	1.38mi
74 Delaware Ave Penns Grove, NJ	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,900	$1.45	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 52 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 51 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    historical $180,000
15. 1990-06-13
    soldstatus $34,000
16. 1980-01-21
    soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,750 · $396/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,750 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$4,750
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,408
• − Management: −$2,408
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $4,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,035
• After-tax cash flow: $5,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penns Grove-Carneys Point Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3412840
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 11.98/100
• National rank: #9665
• State rank: #462 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Carneys Point

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #21958

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carneys Point, NJ
• County: Salem County · 24,175 people
• City population: 13,413
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 13,413
• Household income: $71,942
• Rent vs Own: 46.1% rent · 53.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 696.0

Population outlook (Salem County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,905 people
• By 2030: 57,351 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 51,837 · -13.5%
• By 2050: 46,356 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 36,452 · -39.2%
• By 2100: 28,907 · -51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 22% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 14%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Salem

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 39.6% · R 58.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: 3.9pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+12.8 2016: R+15.4 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+3.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.07%
• Current HPI: 290.3853
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+429.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Coming Soon $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 1980-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,750 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.