8519 Riverside Walk Ln · Houston, TX 77064

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1975 6,599 sqft lot $119/sqft · 11% below area Est $220k · 11% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0

Key facts

• 6,599 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($157/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $480 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-868 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.29%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,002
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -11.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7911 Bova Rd	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,632 (0%)	2mo	$229,900	$141	92
8502 Rivercross Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,632 (0%)	11mo	$245,000	$150	84
8531 Redcliff Rd	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,632 (0%)	9mo	$228,000	$140	83
8430 Bridgefoot Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-9%)	8mo	$244,888	$165	66
8638 Little River Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-14%)	1mo	$180,000	$128	66
8314 Daycoach Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,632 (0%)	15mo	$269,000	$165	64
8610 Apothecary Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,488 (-9%)	9mo	$190,000	$128	64
8619 Upperbrook St	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-12%)	10mo	$267,500	$186	64
7907 Bova Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-14%)	12mo	$275,000	$196	56
8615 Bridgefoot Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-14%)	12mo	$199,990	$142	55
8354 Carriage Creek Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-9%)	8mo	$230,000	$155	47
8359 Sorrel Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,810 (+11%)	14mo	$169,000	$93	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.44% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-14,394
• Equity at exit: $52,323

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,512
• Equity at exit: $59,558

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77064

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,911 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$364 /mo · $4,369/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,895

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8418 Mosshang Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,950	$1.65	16d	1	0.81mi
9410 Fairbanks North Houston Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,733	$1.30	1d	1	0.85mi
9410 Fairbanks North Houston Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,733	$1.30	5d	1	0.85mi
9450 Fairbanks N Houston Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2228	$1,800	$0.81	43d	1	0.85mi
9526 Golden Wood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,850	$1.10	43d	1	1.29mi
7750 Water Park Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1209	$1,900	$1.57	43d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-02-19
    listed $195,000 Active
16. 1991-11-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,369 · $364/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,369 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$4,369
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,835
• − Management: −$1,835
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,021
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$725
• After-tax cash flow: $882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,591
• Household income: $81,658
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1589.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 22% Two or more races 19% Asian 15% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 35% Vietnamese 9% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.44%
• Current HPI: 238.9456
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 1991-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,369 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.