4116 SW 54th Cir · Ocala, FL 34474

$220,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,584 sqft · Condo public records · 220 Days on market

Built 2006 $139/sqft · at area comps Est $230k · at est. $303/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hurry and see this fabulous three bedroom two and a half bath townhome in the sought sought after Gated community of Fore Ranch Wynchase. When you step into Fabulous Town home You will notice the new laminated floors throughout the whole townhome then step into the large Kitchen with granite countertops with a refrigerator microwave dishwasher garbage disposal just waiting for the gourmet cook. An open concept looking out to the living room dining room combination to the sliding glass doors into a screen in patio Also a new half bath. Go upstairs to the master has a walk-in closet with a master The ensuite consists of double sinks a shower tub combination, go down the hall and see the Full size washer dryer. This second bathroom and then enter into are the bedrooms You will be able to log into their Facebook page that shows all of the activities that the community does Also enjoy the basketball courts tennis courts pickleball courts volleyball courts, playground and the outdoor exercise equipment and the gym. There is also a security guard that goes throughout the property from 5:00 PM until 3:00 AM for the owner's safety

Key facts

• Gated community
• Double sinks
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• NEW LAMINATED FLOORS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SCREEN IN PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Ocala — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 299 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,355 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,514
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -4.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-48,278
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-71,978
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34474

• Home prices YoY: -28.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,914 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $942/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$303
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,059

Max offer price $199,661

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-53	+0% $-115	+5% $-177	+10% $-240
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-191	+0% $-115	+5% $-40	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $-4	-0.5pp $-59	base $-115	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5134 SW 41st St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	2185	$2,250	$1.03	15d	1	0.07mi
4095 SW 51st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1944	$1,995	$1.03	15d	1	0.07mi
4401 SW 52nd Cir Unit 101 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$1,600	$1.07	22d	1	0.17mi
4970 SW 45th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.5	1542	$1,800	$1.17	15d	1	0.17mi
4480 SW 49th Ave Unit 1 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.5	1134	$1,550	$1.37	15d	1	0.22mi
4550 SW 52nd Cir #104 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1864	$1,600	$0.86	22d	1	0.31mi
4304 SW 54th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,900	$1.11	22d	1	0.36mi
4820 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,274	$1.98	15d	34	0.53mi
4545 SW 38th Pl Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	22d	1	0.59mi
3821 SW 43rd Ct Ocala, FL	2.0	2.5	1259	$1,565	$1.24	15d	4	0.82mi
4535 SW 54th Street Rd Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$2,104	$2.05	15d	37	0.95mi
4900 SW 46th Ct Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$1,725	$1.46	15d	32	1.06mi
5697 SW 49th Rd Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$1,909	$1.88	15d	17	1.12mi
3640 SW 38th Ter Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1209	$2,299	$1.90	22d	23	1.13mi
5101 SW 60th Street Rd Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1228	$2,027	$1.65	15d	28	1.35mi
4015 SW 54th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,500	$1.22	15d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $303 · $3,636/yr
• Likely covers: trashgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 211 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 210 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 209 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 205 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 204 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $220,000 1140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1140 chars)

    Hurry and see this fabulous three bedroom two and a half bath townhome in the sought sought after Gated community of Fore Ranch Wynchase. When you step into Fabulous Town home You will notice the new laminated floors throughout the whole townhome then step into the large Kitchen with granite countertops with a refrigerator microwave dishwasher garbage disposal just waiting for the gourmet cook. An open concept looking out to the living room dining room combination to the sliding glass doors into a screen in patio Also a new half bath. Go upstairs to the master has a walk-in closet with a master The ensuite consists of double sinks a shower tub combination, go down the hall and see the Full size washer dryer. This second bathroom and then enter into are the bedrooms You will be able to log into their Facebook page that shows all of the activities that the community does Also enjoy the basketball courts tennis courts pickleball courts volleyball courts, playground and the outdoor exercise equipment and the gym. There is also a security guard that goes throughout the property from 5:00 PM until 3:00 AM for the owner's safety

16. 2025-11-10
    listed $225,000 Active 1140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1140 chars)

    Hurry and see this fabulous three bedroom two and a half bath townhome in the sought sought after Gated community of Fore Ranch Wynchase. When you step into Fabulous Town home You will notice the new laminated floors throughout the whole townhome then step into the large Kitchen with granite countertops with a refrigerator microwave dishwasher garbage disposal just waiting for the gourmet cook. An open concept looking out to the living room dining room combination to the sliding glass doors into a screen in patio Also a new half bath. Go upstairs to the master has a walk-in closet with a master The ensuite consists of double sinks a shower tub combination, go down the hall and see the Full size washer dryer. This second bathroom and then enter into are the bedrooms You will be able to log into their Facebook page that shows all of the activities that the community does Also enjoy the basketball courts tennis courts pickleball courts volleyball courts, playground and the outdoor exercise equipment and the gym. There is also a security guard that goes throughout the property from 5:00 PM until 3:00 AM for the owner's safety

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $942 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,826 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$884/yr (+$74/mo · 93.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$942
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − HOA: −$3,636
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$5,112
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,227
• After-tax cash flow: $-155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocala, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,258
• Household income: $65,291
• Rent vs Own: 55.8% rent · 44.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1062.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.16%
• Current HPI: 196.5607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.12%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $942 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.