30 Secluded Ranch Bend Plan · Willis, TX 77318

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · Manufactured · 196 Days on market

Good condition $101/sqft · 74% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home 3 bed / 2 bath - 1640 sq ft home is a perfect balance of comfort and modern features making it a delightful retreat for both relaxation and entertaining. Equipped with modern appliances and ample counter space for meal preparation. Step out your front door to access a modern Clubhouse with a state-of-the-art gym, heated lap pool, and a wide so much more, including a variety of activities and opportunities to be social or just relax.

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Modern appliances
• Heated lap pool

Tags

• MODERN APPLIANCES
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• STATE-OF-THE-ART GYM
• HEATED LAP POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.80%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,000
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: 73.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,681
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $11,312
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,017 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,474/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $568	-5% $511	+0% $454	+5% $397	+10% $340
Rent	-10% $295	-5% $374	+0% $454	+5% $534	+10% $613
Rate	-1.0pp $537	-0.5pp $496	base $454	+0.5pp $411	+1.0pp $368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	4d	1	1.22mi
14210 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,850	$1.15	4d	1	1.25mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 186 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $164,900 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 178 DOM
14. 2025-12-04
    listed $164,900 Active 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This home 3 bed / 2 bath - 1640 sq ft home is a perfect balance of comfort and modern features making it a delightful retreat for both relaxation and entertaining. Equipped with modern appliances and ample counter space for meal preparation. Step out your front door to access a modern Clubhouse with a state-of-the-art gym, heated lap pool, and a wide so much more, including a variety of activities and opportunities to be social or just relax.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,474
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,937
• − Management: −$1,937
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $3,003
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$721
• After-tax cash flow: $4,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is in good condition with modern appliances and ample counter space. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from exterior and landscaping improvements to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and rental value.
• Both Interior touch-ups and cleaning — Enhances the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups and cleaning — Enhances the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Listed $164,900 Zillow