1672 Hillcrest Frst · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$369,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,259 sqft · Other public records · 156 Days on market

Built 2024 7,492 sqft lot $163/sqft · 22% below area Est $472k · 22% under $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully crafted NEW 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home near Canyon Lake, TX offers an unparalleled combination of luxury, style, and modern amenities. Featuring high-end finishes throughout-including sleek quartz countertops, premium hardwood floors, and solid wood doors-this home promises comfort and elegance at every turn. A dedicated office, energy-efficient foam insulation, and thoughtful details ensure this home is as functional as it is beautiful. With easy access to Canyon Lake's outdoor recreation and a serene, quiet setting, this property is perfect for both full-time living or a weekend getaway. Owner is LREA.

Key facts

• 7,492 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-419/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $363k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $313,567 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $472,466
• List price: $369,000
• Delta: -21.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-71,181
• Equity at exit: $55,019

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-100,260
• Equity at exit: $31,904

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,136 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$417 /mo · $5,007/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$658
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,180

Max offer price $362,838

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1392 Hillcrest Frst Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	3.0	2050	$4,000	$1.95	43d	1	0.28mi
520 Lake Frst Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	3.0	1606	$3,125	$1.95	22d	1	0.34mi
149 Campbell Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	3.0	2708	$4,000	$1.48	43d	1	0.67mi
2488 Waterfront Park Dr Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	3.0	2134	$3,250	$1.52	19d	1	0.71mi
705 Firefly Dr Unit 1365728P Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$4,127	$2.27	2d	1	1.29mi
1410 Colleen Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,100	$1.27	43d	1	1.49mi
693 Riviera Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1776	$2,995	$1.69	43d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $369,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $369,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-03-18
    price $369,000 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    This beautifully crafted NEW 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home near Canyon Lake, TX offers an unparalleled combination of luxury, style, and modern amenities. Featuring high-end finishes throughout-including sleek quartz countertops, premium hardwood floors, and solid wood doors-this home promises comfort and elegance at every turn. A dedicated office, energy-efficient foam insulation, and thoughtful details ensure this home is as functional as it is beautiful. With easy access to Canyon Lake's outdoor recreation and a serene, quiet setting, this property is perfect for both full-time living or a weekend getaway. Owner is LREA.

15. 2026-03-17
    price $369,000 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    This beautifully crafted NEW 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home near Canyon Lake, TX offers an unparalleled combination of luxury, style, and modern amenities. Featuring high-end finishes throughout-including sleek quartz countertops, premium hardwood floors, and solid wood doors-this home promises comfort and elegance at every turn. A dedicated office, energy-efficient foam insulation, and thoughtful details ensure this home is as functional as it is beautiful. With easy access to Canyon Lake's outdoor recreation and a serene, quiet setting, this property is perfect for both full-time living or a weekend getaway. Owner is LREA.

16. 2026-01-13
    listed $399,000 New 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    This beautifully crafted NEW 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home near Canyon Lake, TX offers an unparalleled combination of luxury, style, and modern amenities. Featuring high-end finishes throughout-including sleek quartz countertops, premium hardwood floors, and solid wood doors-this home promises comfort and elegance at every turn. A dedicated office, energy-efficient foam insulation, and thoughtful details ensure this home is as functional as it is beautiful. With easy access to Canyon Lake's outdoor recreation and a serene, quiet setting, this property is perfect for both full-time living or a weekend getaway. Owner is LREA.

17. 2026-01-13
    listed $399,000 Active 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    This beautifully crafted NEW 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home near Canyon Lake, TX offers an unparalleled combination of luxury, style, and modern amenities. Featuring high-end finishes throughout-including sleek quartz countertops, premium hardwood floors, and solid wood doors-this home promises comfort and elegance at every turn. A dedicated office, energy-efficient foam insulation, and thoughtful details ensure this home is as functional as it is beautiful. With easy access to Canyon Lake's outdoor recreation and a serene, quiet setting, this property is perfect for both full-time living or a weekend getaway. Owner is LREA.

18. 2026-01-12
    historical
19. 2025-07-22
    price $379,000
20. 2025-06-16
    price $399,000
21. 2024-11-07
    listed $419,900 New
22. 2024-04-25
    soldstatus
23. 2021-06-22
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2021-06-02
    status Pending
25. 2021-05-19
    historical Active Option
26. 2021-05-14
    listed $38,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,007 · $417/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,753 · $563/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,746/yr (+$145/mo · 34.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$5,007
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,010
• − Management: −$3,010
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$6,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,613
• After-tax cash flow: $1,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+871.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $369,000 LERA
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $369,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $399,000 LERA
• 2026-01-13 Listed $399,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $379,000 LERA
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $399,000 LERA
• 2024-11-07 Listed $419,900 LERA
• 2024-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-22 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2021-06-02 Pending — LERA
• 2021-05-19 Contingent — LERA
• 2021-05-14 Listed $38,000 LERA

Property tax history

+23.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,007 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.