73047 Oak Creek Ln · Covington, LA 70435

$320,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,503 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1976 1.03 ac lot $128/sqft · 24% below area Est $424k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ENJOY COVINGTON COUNTRY LIVING on a generous 1.03-acre lot in Flood Zone C! This 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,503 SF home offers valuable updates including a new roof (2025), newer HVAC, and hot water heater (2024)--providing peace of mind from the start. The home features spacious living, kitchen, and breakfast areas, along with a separate dining room that easily serves as a flex space for a home office, workout room, or homeschool classroom. The large primary suite includes built-in bookshelves, direct patio access, and an ensuite bath. Three additional roomy bedrooms offer flexibility - one is currently set up as a dedicated office with built-in desks and shelving. Enjoy outdoor living on the enormous covered, screened-in patio, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. A portable generator remains for added convenience and peace of mind. The beautiful 1.03-acre lot is enhanced with established azaleas and mature landscaping, plus a large storage shed for tools and equipment. Plenty of room for vehicles and outdoor toys with a 2-car attached garage and separate carport/work area! Ready for your personal touches!

Key facts

• 1.03 acre lot
• Separate dining room
• Hot water heater

Tags

• 1.03 ACRE LOT
• NEW ROOF
• NEWER HVAC
• HOT WATER HEATER
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• BUILT-IN BOOKSHELVES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: E. E. Lyon Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #79 of 646 statewide, top 13%, 662 students, 63% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #119 of 218 statewide, top 57%, 635 students, 62% FRL); Covington High School (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #90 of 265 statewide, top 34%, 1,660 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 40% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 366 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $320k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $221,967 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.98%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,690
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -24.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Augusta Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,425 (-3%)	3mo	$406,000	$167	65
20226 Chandler Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,432 (-3%)	10mo	$265,000	$109	64
73035 Becky Ln	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,498 (-0%)	22mo	$441,500	$177	58
73305 Military Rd	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,363 (-6%)	14mo	$712,500	$302	55
3 Pipes Loop	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,315 (-8%)	10mo	$338,500	$146	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-61,432
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-66,262
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70435

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,407

Max offer price $293,870

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-57	+0% $-148	+5% $-238	+10% $-329
Rent	-10% $-323	-5% $-236	+0% $-148	+5% $-60	+10% $27
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-67	base $-148	+0.5pp $-231	+1.0pp $-315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $320,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $320,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $320,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    listed $349,000 Active 1114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1119 chars)

    ENJOY COVINGTON COUNTRY LIVING on a generous 1.03-acre lot in Flood Zone C! This 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,503 SF home offers valuable updates including a new roof (2025), newer HVAC, and hot water heater (2024)—providing peace of mind from the start. The home features spacious living, kitchen, and breakfast areas, along with a separate dining room that easily serves as a flex space for a home office, workout room, or homeschool classroom. The large primary suite includes built-in bookshelves, direct patio access, and an ensuite bath. Three additional roomy bedrooms offer flexibility - one is currently set up as a dedicated office with built-in desks and shelving. Enjoy outdoor living on the enormous covered, screened-in patio, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. A portable generator remains for added convenience and peace of mind. The beautiful 1.03-acre lot is enhanced with established azaleas and mature landscaping, plus a large storage shed for tools and equipment. Plenty of room for vehicles and outdoor toys with a 2-car attached garage and separate carport/work area! Ready for your personal touches!

16. 2026-03-23
    listed $349,000 Active 1119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1119 chars)

    ENJOY COVINGTON COUNTRY LIVING on a generous 1.03-acre lot in Flood Zone C! This 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,503 SF home offers valuable updates including a new roof (2025), newer HVAC, and hot water heater (2024)—providing peace of mind from the start. The home features spacious living, kitchen, and breakfast areas, along with a separate dining room that easily serves as a flex space for a home office, workout room, or homeschool classroom. The large primary suite includes built-in bookshelves, direct patio access, and an ensuite bath. Three additional roomy bedrooms offer flexibility - one is currently set up as a dedicated office with built-in desks and shelving. Enjoy outdoor living on the enormous covered, screened-in patio, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. A portable generator remains for added convenience and peace of mind. The beautiful 1.03-acre lot is enhanced with established azaleas and mature landscaping, plus a large storage shed for tools and equipment. Plenty of room for vehicles and outdoor toys with a 2-car attached garage and separate carport/work area! Ready for your personal touches!

17. 2005-07-06
    soldstatus $170,000
18. 2005-07-01
    soldstatus $170,000
19. 2005-01-05
    listed $187,000
20. 2005-01-05
    listed $187,000
21. 1998-04-16
    soldstatus $150,000
22. 1997-06-23
    listed $159,900
23. 1997-06-23
    listed $159,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,760 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$680/yr (+$57/mo · 62.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$7,540
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,810
• After-tax cash flow: $35/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 228,296 people
• City population: 64,351
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 22,475
• Household income: $80,926
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.03%
• Current HPI: 202.0458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+118.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $349,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-23 Listed $349,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2005-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-01 Sold (MLS) $170,000 GSREIN
• 2005-01-05 Listed $187,000 GSREIN
• 2005-01-05 Listed $187,000 AcadianaMLS
• 1998-04-16 Sold (MLS) $150,000 GSREIN
• 1997-06-23 Listed $159,900 GSREIN
• 1997-06-23 Listed $159,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

-6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,080 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.