20829 E Prickly Pear Dr · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · Manufactured public records · 296 Days on market

Built 1999 8,712 sqft lot Est $227k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLERS offering $5,000 buyers credit toward closing costs or other fees. This is a newly remodeled 3 bed 2 bath Cavco built modular home with a covered patio and covered parking. Fully fenced front and back yard, which is gravel and low maintenance. Workshop in the backyard and storage shed. This is a quiet neighborhood that faces state land. A real must see.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Covered patio
• Storage shed

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• COVERED PARKING
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• WORKSHOP
• STORAGE SHED
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.2 acres; Zoning: R1-10; Road maintained by county; Road frontage on a county road with asphalt surface
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached carport (1 space); RV parking available (off-street)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic (WWT - septic conventional); Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Composition roof; Vinyl windows; Built with other construction materials
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Gravel driveway; Front and rear landscaping; Shed(s); Workshop (separate structure); Back yard and perimeter fencing; Views

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid surface counters; Kitchen/dining combo; Single-level living; Primary bedroom on main level; Washer/dryer connection; Storage area; Workshop; Satellite dish
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connection; 50-gallon electric water heater; 220V electrical service

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.1% in Cordes Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $230k implies a 490% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,345 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.30%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $227,286
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20525 E Conestoga Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-2%)	10mo	$265,000	$245	75
20524 E Concho Ln	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,119 (+2%)	5mo	$199,000	$178	72
20721 E Mingus Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+5%)	8mo	$190,000	$165	70
20935 E Bright Sun (1.03 Acres) Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,173 (+7%)	16mo	$306,000	$261	70
16029 S Apache Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,061 (-3%)	11mo	$230,000	$217	66
20583 E Conestoga Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	973 (-11%)	10mo	$225,000	$231	61
20518 E Sierra Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+10%)	14mo	$224,900	$186	57
16057 S Indian Bend Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,081 (-2%)	15mo	$252,500	$234	56
20570 E Larry Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	967 (-12%)	12mo	$85,000	$88	54
15455 S Cholla Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	981 (-11%)	17mo	$203,000	$207	52
20850 E Cedar Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (+8%)	3mo	$74,000	$63	50
20225 E Conestoga Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,173 (+7%)	16mo	$239,000	$204	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $136,447
• Equity at exit: $207,202

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.10×
• Total profit: $392,706
• Equity at exit: $446,839

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $672/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,719

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $308	-5% $242	+0% $177	+5% $112	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $24	-5% $101	+0% $177	+5% $254	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $293	-0.5pp $236	base $177	+0.5pp $118	+1.0pp $57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 296 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 293 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 291 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 288 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 287 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 286 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 285 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 281 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 280 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 279 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 278 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 277 DOM
16. 2026-02-19
    price $230,000
17. 2026-02-19
    price $230,000
18. 2025-12-05
    price $240,000
19. 2025-12-05
    price $240,000
20. 2025-08-22
    listed $250,000 Active
21. 2025-08-21
    listed $250,000 Active
22. 2023-06-22
    historical
23. 2013-06-12
    soldstatus $39,000
24. 2010-08-22
    listed $75,000
25. 2005-09-30
    soldstatus $94,000
26. 2005-09-30
    soldstatus $94,000
27. 2001-11-30
    soldstatus $69,000
28. 1998-04-24
    soldstatus $14,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,518 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$846/yr (+$71/mo · 125.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥102°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$672
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$1,806
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$434
• After-tax cash flow: $2,562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1486.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $230,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $230,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $240,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $240,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $250,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Listed $250,000 ARMLS
• 2023-06-22 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-12 Sold (MLS) $39,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-22 Listed $75,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2001-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 1998-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $672 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.