12803 Sandrock Dr · Houston, TX 77048

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1983 5,458 sqft lot $107/sqft · 20% below area Est $218k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 12803 Sandrock Drive in Houston! This inviting home features a spacious living room and separate family room, offering plenty of space to relax and entertain. The kitchen is highlighted by beautiful granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and a functional layout that flows seamlessly into the main gathering areas. Comfortable bedrooms and a generous backyard complete the home, all conveniently located near major roadways, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• One story brick home
• Granite countertops

Tags

• ONE STORY BRICK HOME
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• GENEROUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($452/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,500
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -17.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12702 Fawnway Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,698 (+4%)	2mo	$215,000	$127	82
12106 Panay Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-6%)	1mo	$199,900	$130	74
12935 Rockford Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-12%)	4mo	$220,000	$152	69
5227 Honeyvine Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,407 (-14%)	2mo	$199,000	$141	66
5311 Basquiat Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,788 (+9%)	4mo	$299,983	$168	66
5315 Fairgreen Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,576 (-4%)	2mo	$199,990	$127	63
11926 Panay Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-9%)	2mo	$230,000	$154	62
4807 Tili And Gili St	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,423 (-13%)	2mo	$249,990	$176	62
4821 Peanut Butter And Jelly Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,423 (-13%)	4mo	$269,990	$190	59
12015 Rosecroft Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-6%)	1mo	$199,999	$130	57
12302 Swae Lee	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,540 (-6%)	1mo	$243,800	$158	56
5102 Tavenor Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,724 (+5%)	2mo	$220,000	$128	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $16,855
• Equity at exit: $74,890

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $57,320
• Equity at exit: $112,545

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,251/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,702

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5425 E Orem Dr Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,472	$1.42	4d	13	0.37mi
12210 Roandale Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,775	$1.02	43d	1	0.50mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	14d	1	0.58mi
4814 Centipede Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1701	$1,950	$1.15	22d	1	0.66mi
13311 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,250	$1.41	43d	1	0.81mi
12207 Duane Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,691	$1.09	7d	1	0.81mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 5659 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	10d	1	0.88mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,313	$1.13	11d	1	0.88mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	7d	1	0.88mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	5d	1	0.88mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,081	$1.02	3d	1	0.88mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,281	$1.10	3d	1	0.88mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	3d	1	0.88mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,324	$1.13	11d	1	0.88mi
13427 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1443	$2,095	$1.45	7d	1	0.93mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	18d	1	0.95mi
4510 Bungalow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,995	$0.95	43d	1	0.95mi
13442 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,195	$1.54	22d	1	0.97mi
13555 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,900	$2.07	43d	35	0.98mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	1d	26	1.04mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	24d	1	1.12mi
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	43d	1	1.15mi
13958 Cottingham St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$1,825	$1.74	2d	35	1.24mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	5d	1	1.27mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,480	$1.13	43d	1	1.30mi
5458 Osprey Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$1,595	$0.99	20d	1	1.35mi
4111 Oakview Creek Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1885	$2,150	$1.14	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $175,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-05-19
   price $179,000 456-char remark

   Show marketing remark (456 chars)

   Welcome to 12803 Sandrock Drive in Houston! This inviting home features a spacious living room and separate family room, offering plenty of space to relax and entertain. The kitchen is highlighted by beautiful granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and a functional layout that flows seamlessly into the main gathering areas. Comfortable bedrooms and a generous backyard complete the home, all conveniently located near major roadways, shopping, and dining.

7. 2026-03-02
   listed $185,000 Active 456-char remark

   Show marketing remark (456 chars)

   Welcome to 12803 Sandrock Drive in Houston! This inviting home features a spacious living room and separate family room, offering plenty of space to relax and entertain. The kitchen is highlighted by beautiful granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and a functional layout that flows seamlessly into the main gathering areas. Comfortable bedrooms and a generous backyard complete the home, all conveniently located near major roadways, shopping, and dining.

8. 2023-11-30
   historical
9. 2023-10-19
   price $195,000
10. 2023-09-17
    price $200,000
11. 2023-09-02
    listed $205,000 Active
12. 2023-08-24
    historical
13. 2023-08-24
    status Active
14. 2023-08-22
    listed $205,000 Active
15. 2023-08-22
    historical
16. 2023-06-16
    soldstatus
17. 2023-06-16
    soldstatus
18. 2015-10-30
    soldstatus
19. 2015-10-29
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2015-10-02
    status Pending
21. 2015-09-19
    status Option Pending
22. 2015-09-13
    price $105,000
23. 2015-08-16
    status Active
24. 2015-08-03
    status Pending
25. 2015-07-22
    status Option Pending
26. 2015-02-20
    listed $106,500 Active
27. 2014-10-16
    historical
28. 2014-10-09
    listed $95,000 Active
29. 2014-01-08
    historical
30. 2013-11-24
    listed $83,500 Active
31. 1988-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,251 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,251 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$4,251
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,379
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$571
• After-tax cash flow: $1,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+114.4% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-19 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-17 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-02 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-24 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2023-08-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-08-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-08-22 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-10-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-10-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-09-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-09-13 Price Changed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2015-08-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-08-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-07-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-02-20 Listed $106,500 HARMLS
• 2014-10-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-10-09 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2014-01-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-11-24 Listed $83,500 HARMLS
• 1988-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,251 · +17.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.