8700 Hillsdale Dr · Dexter, MI 48137

$329,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1980 0.34 ac lot $316/sqft · 35% below area Est $509k · 35% under · waterfront $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your elevated retreat on Halfmoon Lake, where every home in this private beach association enjoys its own dock space - perfect for launching into the chain of seven connected lakes. Whether you're an avid boater, hunter, or trail enthusiast, this location offers it all: direct access to state land for outdoor recreation and the nearby Potawatomi Trail for rugged biking adventures. Nestled beside the public beach, the property enjoys a natural wooded buffer that provides exceptional privacy. A convenient boat launch across the lake makes water access effortless, while the home's westerly orientation delivers breathtaking sunset views from the covered patio and spacious wraparound deck. Lovingly maintained by the same family for over 50 years, this raised ranch radiates pride of ownership. The open-concept kitchen sits at the heart of the home, featuring warm wood cabinetry, hardwood floors, and a door wall that leads to the deck - ideal for entertaining or quiet morning coffee. The great room boasts a rustic corner fireplace with gas logs and another door wall to the deck, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow. A cozy sitting room with a closet offers flexibility as a potential third bedroom, home office, or reading nook. The basement holds untapped potential for additional living space or generous storage. A concrete driveway ensures ample parking for weekend gatherings and lakefront celebrations. This is more than a home - it's a lifestyle. Come experience the serenity, adventure, and timeless charm of Halfmoon Lake living.

Key facts

• Boat launch
• Dock space
• Westerly orientation

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH ASSOCIATION
• DOCK SPACE
• DIRECT ACCESS TO STATE LAND
• NATURAL WOODED BUFFER
• BOAT LAUNCH
• WESTERLY ORIENTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.8% in Dexter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in MI, #1,011 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Chelsea School District (town): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #59 of 540 in MI (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: North Creek Elementary School (477 students, 15% FRL); Beach Middle School (math 54% / reading 59%, grade B, #70 of 493 statewide, top 14%, 542 students, 10% FRL); Chelsea High School (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B-, #57 of 713 statewide, top 8%, 783 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 996 units permitted in Washtenaw County in 2024 (492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washtenaw County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $225,302 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.54%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $509,171
• List price: $329,000
• Delta: -35.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11646 Weiman Dr	1.16mi	2/1.0	1,040 (0%)	9mo	$150,000	$144	58
7490 Noahs Lndg	1.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,112 (+7%)	21mo	$375,000	$337	31
11528 Sunset Blvd	1.28mi	2/1.0	1,164 (+12%)	20mo	$309,900	$266	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-65,882
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-73,970
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48137

• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,122/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,500

Max offer price $294,550

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9	-5% $-102	+0% $-195	+5% $-288	+10% $-381
Rent	-10% $-373	-5% $-284	+0% $-195	+5% $-106	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-29	-0.5pp $-111	base $-195	+0.5pp $-280	+1.0pp $-367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $329,000 Pending 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 62 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 60 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $329,000 Active Under Contract 59 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    price $329,000 1563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1587 chars)

    Welcome to your elevated retreat on Halfmoon Lake, where every home in this private beach association enjoys its own dock space—perfect for launching into the chain of seven connected lakes. Whether you're an avid boater, hunter, or trail enthusiast, this location offers it all: direct access to state land for outdoor recreation and the nearby Potawatomi Trail for rugged biking adventures. Nestled beside the public beach, the property enjoys a natural wooded buffer that provides exceptional privacy. A convenient boat launch across the lake makes water access effortless, while the home’s westerly orientation delivers breathtaking sunset views from the covered patio and spacious wraparound deck. Lovingly maintained by the same family for over 50 years, this raised ranch radiates pride of ownership. The open-concept kitchen sits at the heart of the home, featuring warm wood cabinetry, hardwood floors, and a door wall that leads to the deck—ideal for entertaining or quiet morning coffee. The great room boasts a rustic corner fireplace with gas logs and another door wall to the deck, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow. A cozy sitting room with a closet offers flexibility as a potential third bedroom, home office, or reading nook. The basement holds untapped potential for additional living space or generous storage. A concrete driveway ensures ample parking for weekend gatherings and lakefront celebrations. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle. Come experience the serenity, adventure, and timeless charm of Halfmoon Lake living.

19. 2026-04-28
    price $329,000 1587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1587 chars)

    Welcome to your elevated retreat on Halfmoon Lake, where every home in this private beach association enjoys its own dock space—perfect for launching into the chain of seven connected lakes. Whether you're an avid boater, hunter, or trail enthusiast, this location offers it all: direct access to state land for outdoor recreation and the nearby Potawatomi Trail for rugged biking adventures. Nestled beside the public beach, the property enjoys a natural wooded buffer that provides exceptional privacy. A convenient boat launch across the lake makes water access effortless, while the home’s westerly orientation delivers breathtaking sunset views from the covered patio and spacious wraparound deck. Lovingly maintained by the same family for over 50 years, this raised ranch radiates pride of ownership. The open-concept kitchen sits at the heart of the home, featuring warm wood cabinetry, hardwood floors, and a door wall that leads to the deck—ideal for entertaining or quiet morning coffee. The great room boasts a rustic corner fireplace with gas logs and another door wall to the deck, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow. A cozy sitting room with a closet offers flexibility as a potential third bedroom, home office, or reading nook. The basement holds untapped potential for additional living space or generous storage. A concrete driveway ensures ample parking for weekend gatherings and lakefront celebrations. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle. Come experience the serenity, adventure, and timeless charm of Halfmoon Lake living.

20. 2026-04-01
    listed $357,000 Active 1563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1587 chars)

    Welcome to your elevated retreat on Halfmoon Lake, where every home in this private beach association enjoys its own dock space—perfect for launching into the chain of seven connected lakes. Whether you're an avid boater, hunter, or trail enthusiast, this location offers it all: direct access to state land for outdoor recreation and the nearby Potawatomi Trail for rugged biking adventures. Nestled beside the public beach, the property enjoys a natural wooded buffer that provides exceptional privacy. A convenient boat launch across the lake makes water access effortless, while the home’s westerly orientation delivers breathtaking sunset views from the covered patio and spacious wraparound deck. Lovingly maintained by the same family for over 50 years, this raised ranch radiates pride of ownership. The open-concept kitchen sits at the heart of the home, featuring warm wood cabinetry, hardwood floors, and a door wall that leads to the deck—ideal for entertaining or quiet morning coffee. The great room boasts a rustic corner fireplace with gas logs and another door wall to the deck, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow. A cozy sitting room with a closet offers flexibility as a potential third bedroom, home office, or reading nook. The basement holds untapped potential for additional living space or generous storage. A concrete driveway ensures ample parking for weekend gatherings and lakefront celebrations. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle. Come experience the serenity, adventure, and timeless charm of Halfmoon Lake living.

21. 2026-04-01
    listed $357,000 Active 1587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1587 chars)

    Welcome to your elevated retreat on Halfmoon Lake, where every home in this private beach association enjoys its own dock space—perfect for launching into the chain of seven connected lakes. Whether you're an avid boater, hunter, or trail enthusiast, this location offers it all: direct access to state land for outdoor recreation and the nearby Potawatomi Trail for rugged biking adventures. Nestled beside the public beach, the property enjoys a natural wooded buffer that provides exceptional privacy. A convenient boat launch across the lake makes water access effortless, while the home’s westerly orientation delivers breathtaking sunset views from the covered patio and spacious wraparound deck. Lovingly maintained by the same family for over 50 years, this raised ranch radiates pride of ownership. The open-concept kitchen sits at the heart of the home, featuring warm wood cabinetry, hardwood floors, and a door wall that leads to the deck—ideal for entertaining or quiet morning coffee. The great room boasts a rustic corner fireplace with gas logs and another door wall to the deck, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow. A cozy sitting room with a closet offers flexibility as a potential third bedroom, home office, or reading nook. The basement holds untapped potential for additional living space or generous storage. A concrete driveway ensures ample parking for weekend gatherings and lakefront celebrations. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle. Come experience the serenity, adventure, and timeless charm of Halfmoon Lake living.

22. 2025-10-24
    historical
23. 2025-08-13
    listed $399,000 Active
24. 2025-08-13
    listed $399,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,122 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,094 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,972/yr (+$164/mo · 175.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$1,122
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,163
• − Management: −$2,163
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$8,285
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,988
• After-tax cash flow: $-352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chelsea School District
• NCES district ID: 2608940
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $75,362
• Composite: 49.34/100
• National rank: #2018
• State rank: #59 of 540 in MI

Livability — Dexter

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #1011

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,293

Population outlook (Washtenaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 402,878 people
• By 2030: 424,104 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 464,633 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 504,728 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 614,463 · +52.5%
• By 2100: 676,181 · +67.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Italian 8% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Washtenaw

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.4) · D 71.0% · R 26.6% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.4 2020: D+46.6 2016: D+41.5 2012: D+36.0 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.21%
• Current HPI: 198.5923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-17.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $329,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $329,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-01 Listed $357,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-01 Listed $357,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $399,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $399,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,122 · -80.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.