1210 Randolph Ln · Midland, TX 79705

$325,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,962 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2015 6,403 sqft lot Est $355k · 8% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BEAUTIFULLY DESIGNED 4 BEDROOM, 2 BATH HOME OFFERING 1,962 SQ FT OF COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACE! THIS HOME FEATURES AN OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT WITH A SPACIOUS KITCHEN, GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, AND PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE OVERLOOKING THE LIVING AND DINING AREAS. THE SEQUESTERED PRIMARY SUITE OFFERS A RELAXING RETREAT, WHILE THE BACKYARD FEATURES A COVERED PATIO AND GENEROUS YARD SPACE PERFECT FOR ENTERTAINING OR RELAXING. CONVENIENTLY LOCATED AND READY FOR ITS NEXT OWNER!

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Granite countertops
• Generous yard space

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED PATIO
• GENEROUS YARD SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $240 (about $20/month)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built with residential construction materials
• Exterior features: Patio; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,204 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $355,122
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6907 Saddle Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (-13%)	1mo	$309,000	$181	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-61,170
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-67,408
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,712 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,780/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,858

Max offer price $304,588

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6717 Brand Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	21d	1	0.19mi
1315 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	13d	1	0.24mi
6706 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,800	$1.54	44d	1	0.28mi
1310 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,400	$1.73	21d	1	0.40mi
1501 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,750	$1.40	13d	1	0.44mi
1341 Loess St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1623	$2,795	$1.72	44d	1	0.45mi
1508 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,250	$1.43	13d	1	0.45mi
1300 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,350	$1.58	44d	1	0.48mi
1316 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,599	$1.59	44d	1	0.49mi
1336 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	44d	1	0.49mi
1305 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	13d	1	0.51mi
1321 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	44d	1	0.51mi
1325 Hogback Way Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,950	$1.54	44d	1	0.51mi
1341 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	44d	1	0.52mi
1621 Revolution Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	44d	1	0.52mi
1300 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$3,150	$1.65	44d	1	0.54mi
1300 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$3,150	$1.65	21d	1	0.54mi
1312 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	21d	1	0.54mi
1336 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,899	$1.52	44d	1	0.54mi
1348 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$3,100	$1.62	44d	1	0.55mi
1408 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,599	$1.59	44d	1	0.56mi
1416 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1933	$3,150	$1.63	13d	1	0.56mi
1337 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	21d	1	0.57mi
1337 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	44d	1	0.57mi
1301 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	21d	1	0.57mi
1341 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,950	$1.54	21d	1	0.57mi
1704 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,500	$1.67	21d	1	0.57mi
1405 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	13d	1	0.57mi
1708 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,550	$1.51	44d	1	0.59mi
1801 Chuck Wagon Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2300	$3,100	$1.35	13d	1	0.65mi
6309 Ojibwa Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,150	$1.65	21d	1	0.66mi
6809 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,500	$1.71	13d	1	0.69mi
6812 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	13d	1	0.72mi
1909 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2577	$3,300	$1.28	44d	1	0.78mi
6801 Baron Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$3,150	$1.53	13d	1	0.91mi
1115 Overshine Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1867	$2,600	$1.39	13d	1	0.93mi
2060 Acacia Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2050	$3,100	$1.51	13d	1	1.09mi
6914 Outlaw Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2123	$3,250	$1.53	13d	1	1.11mi
6333 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	21d	1	1.13mi
1513 San Miguel Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	13d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $325,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $325,000 Active
17. 2019-04-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,780 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,948 · $496/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,168/yr (+$97/mo · 24.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,780
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,604
• − Management: −$2,604
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$6,967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,672
• After-tax cash flow: $286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $325,000 PBBOR
• 2019-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+25.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,780 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.