7302 Santa Barbara St #323 · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$489,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,632 sqft · Manufactured · 90 Days on market

Built 1976 Good condition 3,500 sqft lot $300/sqft · 27% above area Est $385k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Triple wide large home recently updated. Located on one of the 10 ponds with large outdoor decks for relaxing or parties. Vaulted ceilings in the big Living Room with French Doors out to the deck. Fenced for Rosie - a Double Doodle. Even has a separate pantry just inside from the carport and a "mancave". Primary Bedroom and Bath are over 30 feet wide with larger walk-in shower.

Key facts

• Separate pantry
• French doors
• Large outdoor decks

Tags

• LARGE OUTDOOR DECKS
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• FRENCH DOORS
• SEPARATE PANTRY
• LARGER WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $490k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $490k).
• Recommended offer: $461k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($159k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $137k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $460,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.28%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $385,217
• List price: $489,900
• Delta: 27.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7224 San Benito St	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,600 (-2%)	9mo	$400,000	$250	83
7304 Santa Barbara St #325	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,512 (-7%)	9mo	$481,000	$318	78
7207 Santa Barbara St #154	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+2%)	3mo	$513,300	$310	77
7313 San Luis St #236	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (-5%)	5mo	$450,000	$291	76
7024 San Bartolo Unit 19 A	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (-5%)	2mo	$425,000	$275	71
7203 San Luis St #166	0.25mi	2/2.5	1,536 (-6%)	9mo	$375,000	$244	67
7140 Santa Rosa St	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	6mo	$191,000	$133	64
7106 Santa Cruz #56	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,464 (-10%)	9mo	$390,000	$266	64
7318 San Luis St	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	9mo	$285,000	$198	64
7217 San Luis St #173	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	10mo	$280,000	$194	61
7018 San Carlos St #60	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	6mo	$392,000	$272	59
7002 San Bartolo St #30	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,781 (+9%)	2mo	$341,500	$192	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $105,476
• Equity at exit: $186,603

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $316,820
• Equity at exit: $263,711

Cash invested: $137,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,774 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,569
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$612 /mo · $7,348/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,212
• Net cashflow: $1,176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,286

Max offer price $489,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,514	-5% $1,345	+0% $1,176	+5% $1,006	+10% $837
Rent	-10% $719	-5% $948	+0% $1,176	+5% $1,404	+10% $1,632
Rate	-1.0pp $1,422	-0.5pp $1,300	base $1,176	+0.5pp $1,049	+1.0pp $920

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,475
• Closing costs: $14,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7064 Whitewater St Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	2050	$8,500	$4.15	44d	1	0.39mi
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	44d	1	0.56mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	17d	1	0.69mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	18d	1	0.79mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	44d	1	0.87mi
6790 Embarcadero Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0–2.5	2104	$5,750	$2.73	5d	1	0.94mi
1967 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	929	$5,359	$5.77	2d	7	1.08mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	44d	1	1.11mi
1859 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.5	1950	$7,000	$3.59	2d	1	1.24mi
1812 Parliament Rd Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1467	$11,200	$7.63	2d	1	1.27mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	44d	1	1.29mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,095	$3.67	2d	3	1.33mi
141 Stonesteps Way Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.5	1593	$6,500	$4.08	2d	1	1.45mi
1703 Kennington Rd Encinitas, CA	3.0	2.0	1616	$6,195	$3.83	3d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $489,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $489,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $489,900 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $489,900 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $489,900 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $489,900 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $489,900 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $489,900 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $489,900 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $489,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $489,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $489,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $489,900 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $489,900 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    listed $489,900 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Triple wide large home recently updated. Located on one of the 10 ponds with large outdoor decks for relaxing or parties. Vaulted ceilings in the big Living Room with French Doors out to the deck. Fenced for Rosie - a Double Doodle. Even has a separate pantry just inside from the carport and a "mancave". Primary Bedroom and Bath are over 30 feet wide with larger walk-in shower.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $69,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,442
• − Property taxes: −$7,348
• − Insurance: −$2,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,543
• − Management: −$5,543
• − Depreciation: −$14,252
• Taxable income: $6,707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,610
• After-tax cash flow: $12,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This recently updated manufactured home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and interior updates, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard and landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A newer, more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, boosting both resale and rental value.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and renters, increasing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard and landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A newer, more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, boosting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and renters, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $489,900 CRMLS