869 Lake Ave · Lake Luzerne, NY 12846

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 932 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1950 0.52 ac lot Est $213k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Adirondack charm can be yours with this log cabin perfectly positioned between Lake Luzerne and Lake George! It's an adventurers dream to be across the street from Fourth Lake State Park, steps away from ziplining, tubing and water rafting, and extensive snowmobile trails! Enjoy the beauty of the Adirondacks year round, while being close to the Northway, shopping, and dining. The beautiful wood interior and updated bath and kitchen allow for a comfortable stay after a busy day, Evening entertainment is calling with the expansive back deck and beautiful new fire pit. .

Key facts

• Updated bath
• Wood interior
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• LOG CABIN
• FOURTH LAKE STATE PARK
• WOOD INTERIOR
• UPDATED BATH
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with space for 3 vehicles
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; 150 amp electrical service; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Entry and main living on the first floor
• Construction: Log construction; Stone foundation; Metal roof; Built/updated to include 392 sq ft of finished below-grade area
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Level, wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil)
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled condition; Sliding doors; Curtain rods and drapes; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors; 5 total rooms; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 7.0% in Lake Luzerne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#682 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hadley-Luzerne Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #396 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hadley-Luzerne Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 304 students, 54% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hadley-Luzerne Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $200k implies a 376% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.69%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,428
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Mountain View Rd	0.07mi	3/1.5	960 (+3%)	9mo	$220,000	$229	82
847 Lake Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-14%)	9mo	$175,000	$219	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $188,175
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.79×
• Total profit: $491,863
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12846

• Home prices YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,615/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$690
• Net cashflow: $1,245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,708

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2011-06-05
   historical
4. 2010-11-06
   listed $239,000
5. 2010-10-29
   historical
6. 2010-10-23
   historical
7. 2010-08-08
   listed $249,999
8. 2010-08-08
   listed $249,999
9. 2008-12-10
   soldstatus $42,000
10. 2008-12-09
    soldstatus $42,000
11. 2008-12-08
    soldstatus $42,000
12. 2005-10-25
    listed $65,000
13. 2005-10-23
    listed $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,615 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,997 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: +$382/yr (+$32/mo · 14.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,615
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,152
• − Management: −$3,152
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $12,473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,994
• After-tax cash flow: $11,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hadley-Luzerne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,974
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3292
• State rank: #396 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Luzerne

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #682
• US rank: #12851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,007

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 10% German 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.73%
• Current HPI: 336.2179
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+207.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $199,900 Global MLS
• 2011-06-05 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2010-11-06 Listed $239,000 Global MLS
• 2010-10-29 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2010-10-23 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2010-08-08 Listed $249,999 Global MLS
• 2010-08-08 Listed $249,999 Global MLS
• 2008-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-09 Sold (MLS) $42,000 Global MLS
• 2008-12-08 Sold (MLS) $42,000 Global MLS
• 2005-10-25 Listed $65,000 Global MLS
• 2005-10-23 Listed $65,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,615 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.