12119 Terra Ceia Ave · Moon Lake, FL 34654

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2008 7,725 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

IN MULTIPLE OFFERS ! Manufactured home is built to newer wind and energy codes. Home has new paint. Seller will install new stove, and range prior to or shortly after closing. Walk in closets in all bedrooms. Split bedroom privacy. Mortgage company owner offers financing. Pond behind home for privacy. Room dimensions are approximate. See manufacturer's floor plan.

Key facts

• Open layout
• Deck at the back
• New roof

Tags

• UPDATED MANUFACTURED HOME
• NEW ROOF
• NEW AIR CONDITIONING SYSTEM
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• OPEN LAYOUT
• DECK AT THE BACK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned AR; Lot about 0.18 acres (approximately 0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured single wide home; One story; Faces southwest; Homesteaded
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $564 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $160k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.10%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,984
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12141 Terra Ceia Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	11mo	$50,000	$47	88
9260 Lake Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5	960 (-9%)	2mo	$70,000	$73	62
11940 Terra Ceia Ave	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	900 (-15%)	8mo	$80,000	$89	57
9532 Lake Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	14mo	$189,000	$164	48
12511 Walton Ave	0.38mi	3/3.0	1,188 (+12%)	12mo	$315,000	$265	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,288
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $27,978
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $544/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $564

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,204

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9251 Adler St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1006	$1,450	$1.44	24d	1	0.21mi
9253 Beaufort Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	24d	1	0.32mi
12741 Poppy St New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	22d	1	0.85mi
13015 Midvale Ave New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	5d	1	1.14mi
11691 Buchner Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,085	$2.10	2d	66	1.20mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $160,000 Active
3. 2018-12-14
   soldstatus $54,900 Sold 368-char remark

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   IN MULTIPLE OFFERS ! Manufactured home is built to newer wind and energy codes. Home has new paint. Seller will install new stove, and range prior to or shortly after closing. Walk in closets in all bedrooms. Split bedroom privacy. Mortgage company owner offers financing. Pond behind home for privacy. Room dimensions are approximate. See manufacturer's floor plan.

4. 2018-11-28
   status Pending 368-char remark

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   IN MULTIPLE OFFERS ! Manufactured home is built to newer wind and energy codes. Home has new paint. Seller will install new stove, and range prior to or shortly after closing. Walk in closets in all bedrooms. Split bedroom privacy. Mortgage company owner offers financing. Pond behind home for privacy. Room dimensions are approximate. See manufacturer's floor plan.

5. 2018-11-05
   listed $57,900 Active 368-char remark

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   IN MULTIPLE OFFERS ! Manufactured home is built to newer wind and energy codes. Home has new paint. Seller will install new stove, and range prior to or shortly after closing. Walk in closets in all bedrooms. Split bedroom privacy. Mortgage company owner offers financing. Pond behind home for privacy. Room dimensions are approximate. See manufacturer's floor plan.

6. 2004-12-13
   soldstatus $11,000
7. 2004-12-09
   soldstatus $11,000 76-char remark

   Show marketing remark (76 chars)

   WOODED LOT WITH WELL AND SEPTIC / $2,166 PREPAID IMPACT FEES / ON SMALL LAKE

8. 2004-12-02
   historical 76-char remark

   Show marketing remark (76 chars)

   WOODED LOT WITH WELL AND SEPTIC / $2,166 PREPAID IMPACT FEES / ON SMALL LAKE

9. 2004-10-14
   listed $14,900 76-char remark

   Show marketing remark (76 chars)

   WOODED LOT WITH WELL AND SEPTIC / $2,166 PREPAID IMPACT FEES / ON SMALL LAKE

10. 1996-03-12
    soldstatus $58,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $544 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$784/yr (+$65/mo · 144.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$544
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $4,366
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,048
• After-tax cash flow: $5,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Moon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #22850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moon Lake, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+174.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-14 Sold (MLS) $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-05 Listed $57,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-09 Sold (MLS) $11,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-14 Listed $14,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $58,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $544 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.