917 W 39th St · Odessa, TX 79764

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1958 6,490 sqft lot $129/sqft · 7% below area Est $169k · 11% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here it is! something under $150k. Extra parking in rear of home. Make this your family home or flip it out for investment

Key facts

• Extra parking
• 6,490 sq ft lot
• Built 1958

Tags

• EXTRA PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.69%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,849
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -11.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
818 W 30th St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,257 (+8%)	20mo	$174,900	$139	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,686
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $34,760
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79764

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,661 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $660/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,144

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
815 W 40th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	43d	1	0.18mi
3509 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,700	$1.40	13d	1	0.29mi
3800 N Golder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	20d	1	0.44mi
3727 Andrews Hwy Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	13d	18	0.64mi
4312 N Dixie Blvd Unit 72C Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	43d	1	1.40mi
1101 W 19th St Unit 1 Odessa, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $149,900 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Here it is! something under $150k. Extra parking in rear of home. Make this your family home or flip it out for investment

17. 2026-02-24
    listed $159,900 Active 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Here it is! something under $150k. Extra parking in rear of home. Make this your family home or flip it out for investment

18. 2012-12-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,084/yr (+$174/mo · 315.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$660
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,577
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$618
• After-tax cash flow: $4,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• City population: 131,169
• Population (ZIP): 26,805

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 37% Two or more races 17% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 45% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.67%
• Current HPI: 238.7065
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $149,900 ODMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $159,900 ODMLS
• 2012-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $660 · +20.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.