8007 Shining Flor Run · Lago Vista, TX 78645

$339,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,743 sqft · SingleFamily · 520 Days on market

Built 2025 $195/sqft · 11% below area Est $383k · 11% under $89/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

Key facts

• Open spaces
• Premium appliances
• Kitchen island

Tags

• OPEN SPACES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• PREMIUM APPLIANCES
• AMPLE STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-293 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.2% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lago Vista El (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 502 students, 34% FRL); Lago Vista Middle (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 433 students, 25% FRL); Lago Vista H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 636 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1101 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 520 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $271,539 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 520 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.69%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,831
• List price: $339,900
• Delta: -11.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8017 Shining Flor Run	0.03mi	4/3.0	1,743 (0%)	3mo	$369,900	$212	96
8011 Shining Flor Run	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-4%)	7mo	$359,900	$214	79
8003 Shining Flor Run	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,548 (-11%)	9mo	$359,900	$232	69
8012 Shining Flor Run	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (-12%)	3mo	$349,900	$228	67
22611 Bristlegrass Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,825 (+5%)	8mo	$299,000	$164	61
8008 Arbor Knoll Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,921 (+10%)	1mo	$300,000	$156	55
8100 Purple Aster Pass	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,582 (-9%)	5mo	$330,000	$209	52
8120 Royal Mint Cv	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,990 (+14%)	6mo	$359,900	$181	52
7904 Prairie Rye Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (-10%)	7mo	$325,000	$208	51
7529 Desert Needle Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (-8%)	8mo	$365,000	$229	44
8501 Prairie Rye Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,984 (+14%)	12mo	$469,000	$236	43
7509 Desert Needle Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (-11%)	8mo	$349,900	$225	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-73,687
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-88,015
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1101
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,715 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,098/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$89
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $-293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,086

Max offer price $297,529

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-175	+0% $-293	+5% $-410	+10% $-528
Rent	-10% $-507	-5% $-400	+0% $-293	+5% $-186	+10% $-78
Rate	-1.0pp $-122	-0.5pp $-206	base $-293	+0.5pp $-381	+1.0pp $-470

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22813 Agave Grove Dr Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,925	$1.18	6d	1	0.31mi
22419 Red Sage Cv Meadowlakes, TX	4.0	3.0	2068	$2,800	$1.35	45d	1	0.71mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $89 · $1,068/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $339,900 Active 520 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,900 Active 517 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,900 Active 516 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,900 Active 515 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,900 Active 514 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,900 Active 512 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $339,900 Active 508 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $341,900 Active 507 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $341,900 Active 506 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $341,900 Active 503 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $341,900 Active 502 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $341,900 Active 501 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $344,900 Active 500 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $344,900 Active 499 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $349,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

16. 2026-04-28
    price $356,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

17. 2026-04-20
    price $359,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

18. 2026-04-08
    price $364,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

19. 2025-11-14
    price $369,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

20. 2025-10-29
    price $379,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

21. 2025-09-25
    price $384,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

22. 2025-09-09
    price $389,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

23. 2025-08-19
    price $394,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

24. 2025-07-30
    price $399,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

25. 2025-07-02
    price $404,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

26. 2025-06-25
    price $408,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

27. 2025-06-12
    price $409,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

28. 2025-04-16
    price $414,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

29. 2025-03-11
    price $444,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

30. 2025-01-17
    listed $454,900 Active 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Cypress, where contemporary elegance meets practical comfort. This thoughtfully designed floor plan offers an inviting blend of open spaces and refined details, making it perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. This layout creates a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, enhancing the flow and openness of the home. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a generous island with seating, premium appliances, and ample storage, making it both a functional workspace and a gathering spot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$5,098
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,607
• − Management: −$2,607
• − HOA: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$9,423
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,261
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lago Vista

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #6393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lago Vista, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 15,256
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $349,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $356,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $359,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $364,900 Zillow
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $369,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $379,900 Zillow
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $384,900 Zillow
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $389,900 Zillow
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $394,900 Zillow
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $399,900 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $404,900 Zillow
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $408,900 Zillow
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $409,900 Zillow
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $414,900 Zillow
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $444,900 Zillow
• 2025-01-17 Listed $454,900 Zillow