MITCHELL TOWNHOME Plan · Leland, NC 28451

$269,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,554 sqft · Townhouse · 929 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Mitchell! A two-story townhome with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 Baths, 1,554 square feet of living space and 1 car garage in a prime location! Your new home in Leland, North Carolina in our Grayson Park community. The kitchen features shaker-style cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances, which are sure to both turn heads and make meal prep easy. You'll never be too far from the action with the living and dining area right there. Your new Mitchell features an open concept first floor anchored by a spacious kitchen with a peninsula bar that overlooks your family and dining room. Your bedrooms are on the second floor with a large primary suite and bath with double vani

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 929 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $269,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Townhome, new construction plan named MITCHELL TOWNHOME; Listed as Active
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,554 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan-built townhome

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $268,842.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($977/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Leland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#177 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Town Creek Elementary (math 50% / reading 53%, grade C-, #392 of 1,410 statewide, top 28%, 654 students, 100% FRL); Leland Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 780 students, 100% FRL); North Brunswick High (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,450 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1224 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 929 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 929 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,842
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7775 Pennycress Dr #554	0.34mi	4/2.5	1,554 (0%)	2mo	$259,999	$167	83
7791 Pennycress Dr #544	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,554 (0%)	4mo	$269,999	$174	82
3154 Lobelia Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,475 (-5%)	2mo	$257,000	$174	81
7622 Pennycress Dr #452	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,418 (-9%)	4mo	$244,999	$173	66
7778 Pennycress Dr Unit 611	0.22mi	4/2.5	1,763 (+13%)	3mo	$280,000	$159	65
7790 Pennycress Dr #592	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,418 (-9%)	1mo	$259,999	$183	64
7767 Pennycress Dr #552	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,418 (-9%)	3mo	$239,999	$169	63
7770 Pennycress Dr #621	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,418 (-9%)	3mo	$259,999	$183	61
7798 Pennycress Dr Unit 582	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,763 (+13%)	2mo	$289,999	$164	61
7774 Pennycress Dr Unit 612	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,763 (+13%)	1mo	$287,999	$163	60
1006 Granite Grv	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (-2%)	2mo	$289,000	$191	58
7762 Pennycress Dr Unit 631	0.37mi	4/2.5	1,763 (+13%)	4mo	$285,000	$162	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-42,613
• Equity at exit: $40,085

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-47,200
• Equity at exit: $23,245

Cash invested: $75,276 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28451

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1224
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,455 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,410
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,033/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,352

Max offer price $268,842

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $267	-5% $174	+0% $81	+5% $-11	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-16	+0% $81	+5% $178	+10% $275
Rate	-1.0pp $217	-0.5pp $150	base $81	+0.5pp $12	+1.0pp $-59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,210
• Closing costs: $8,065
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3915 Starry Sky Rd Leland, NC	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,440	$1.43	23d	1	1.40mi
3907 Starry Sky Rd Leland, NC	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,294	$1.38	25d	1	1.42mi
9125 Sunrise Creek Dr Leland, NC	4.0	2.5	1772	$2,440	$1.38	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $269,990 Active 929 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,990 Active 926 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,990 Active 925 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,990 Active 924 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,990 Active 923 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,990 Active 921 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,990 Active 920 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,990 Active 918 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,990 Active 917 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,990 Active 916 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,990 Active 915 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,990 Active 912 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,990 Active 910 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,990 Active 909 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 908 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,990 Active 907 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,059
• − Property taxes: −$4,033
• − Insurance: −$1,344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,357
• − Management: −$2,357
• − Depreciation: −$7,821
• Taxable loss: −$3,512
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$843
• After-tax cash flow: $1,820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Leland

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #177
• US rank: #9158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leland, NC
• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• City population: 46,933
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 46,933
• Household income: $81,481
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1049.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.99%
• Current HPI: 148.6217
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B