304 Meadow Dr · Marion, TX 78124

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1988 8,712 sqft lot $126/sqft · 34% below area Est $228k · 34% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Minor finish up work on updating to home. Great potential, near Hwy 78 in Marion. Rural country atmosphere. Clean and neat three bedroom and one bath home with a nice fenced yard with double gates to rear yard. Great family neighborhood. Lets make an appointment for you to see the interior.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Double gates
• 8,712 sq ft lot

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• DOUBLE GATES
• RURAL COUNTRY ATMOSPHERE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.5% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 408 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.56%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,293
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -34.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 Klein	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (+5%)	10mo	$287,500	$230	67
232 Sunflower	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,054 (-11%)	14mo	$205,000	$194	61
466 Sarah Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+7%)	11mo	$199,999	$158	60
478 Sarah Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+7%)	11mo	$233,054	$184	60
526 Sarah Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+7%)	11mo	$194,449	$154	60
209 W Krueger St	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,243 (+5%)	24mo	$325,000	$261	53
106 E Seguin St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+7%)	17mo	$215,000	$170	52
216 S Live Oak	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,222 (+3%)	11mo	$199,950	$164	47
312 E Klein St	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,050 (-12%)	9mo	$219,900	$209	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,402
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $15,458
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,703/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,360

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 W Schulz St Marion, TX	3.0	1.5	1109	$1,695	$1.53	4d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $150,000 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Minor finish up work on updating to home. Great potential, near Hwy 78 in Marion. Rural country atmosphere. Clean and neat three bedroom and one bath home with a nice fenced yard with double gates to rear yard. Great family neighborhood. Lets make an appointment for you to see the interior.

16. 2026-04-23
    price $150,000 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    REDUCED TO SELL: NICE Ranch style three bedroom and one bath home Open living, dining open to kitchen. One car garage. Fenced rear yard with double gates on the side. Renovation started and needs a little help. Check out this cute family home in a country atmosphere and Marion schools. No HOA

17. 2026-03-30
    listed $172,600 New 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    REDUCED TO SELL: NICE Ranch style three bedroom and one bath home Open living, dining open to kitchen. One car garage. Fenced rear yard with double gates on the side. Renovation started and needs a little help. Check out this cute family home in a country atmosphere and Marion schools. No HOA

18. 2026-03-30
    listed $172,500 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    REDUCED TO SELL: NICE Ranch style three bedroom and one bath home Open living, dining open to kitchen. One car garage. Fenced rear yard with double gates on the side. Renovation started and needs a little help. Check out this cute family home in a country atmosphere and Marion schools. No HOA

19. 2022-01-21
    soldstatus
20. 2004-11-02
    soldstatus
21. 1987-03-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,703 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$42/yr (+$3/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,703
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $866
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$208
• After-tax cash flow: $2,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,907

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $150,000 LERA
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $150,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $172,600 LERA
• 2026-03-30 Listed $172,500 CTXMLS
• 2022-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-11-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,703 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.