14433 Mallard Dr · Homer Glen, IL 60491

$605,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,387 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978
• Listed 10 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $605k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (51.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (50.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (51.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#449 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockport Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #153 of 620 in IL (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lockport Township High Sch East (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #117 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 3,872 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 15821% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $449k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $296,090 (51.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.39%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 16.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $363,394
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12337 Derby Ln	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,382 (-0%)	14mo	$399,000	$289	58
71 Ruggles Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,465 (+6%)	11mo	$355,000	$242	42
111 Ruggles Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,483 (+7%)	20mo	$355,000	$239	37
102 Ruggles Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+7%)	17mo	$389,900	$262	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-209,403
• Equity at exit: $90,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.92×
• Total profit: $-325,727
• Equity at exit: $52,309

Cash invested: $169,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60491

• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 16.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,173
• Tax from tax record: −$694 /mo · $8,327/yr
• Insurance: −$252
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-1,749

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,214

Max offer price $296,090

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,406	-5% $-1,577	+0% $-1,749	+5% $-1,920	+10% $-2,091
Rent	-10% $-1,986	-5% $-1,867	+0% $-1,749	+5% $-1,630	+10% $-1,512
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,444	-0.5pp $-1,595	base $-1,749	+0.5pp $-1,905	+1.0pp $-2,065

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $151,250
• Closing costs: $18,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14310 Mallard Dr Homer Glen, IL	4.0	3.0	1610	$3,000	$1.86	17d	1	0.21mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $605,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $605,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $605,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $605,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $605,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $605,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $605,000 Active (Private) 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $605,000 Active (Private) 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $605,000 Active (Private) 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $605,000 Active (Private) 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $605,000 Active (Private) 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $605,000 Active (Private) 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $605,000 Active (Private) 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $605,000 Active (Private) 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,327 · $694/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,030 · $919/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,703/yr (+$225/mo · 32.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,889
• − Property taxes: −$8,327
• − Insurance: −$3,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$17,600
• Taxable loss: −$32,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,824
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1723350
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $69,994
• Composite: 33.5/100
• National rank: #5440
• State rank: #153 of 620 in IL

Livability — Homer Glen

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #449
• US rank: #9274

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Homer Glen, IL
• City population: 22,585
• Population (ZIP): 22,585

Population outlook (Will County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 705,368 people
• By 2030: 708,154 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 702,692 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 680,249 · -3.6%
• By 2075: 611,990 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 516,215 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 24% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 9% Arabic 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Will

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.1% · R 48.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.3 2016: D+5.7 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.66%
• Current HPI: 208.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+2320.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Coming Soon $605,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Rental Removed $3,800 MRED
• 2026-04-23 Listed for Rent $3,800 MRED
• 2026-04-22 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $449,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-15 Sold (MLS) $449,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-06 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-05 Listed $449,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-29 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-17 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-07 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-07 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-07 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-26 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-01 Sold (MLS) $275,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-14 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-08 Listed $350,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1986-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $8,327 · +22.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.