427 W 154th St #2 · New York, NY 10032

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 856 sqft · Condo public records · 680 Days on market

Built 1985 $503/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor's Dream: Rare 2-Bedroom Renovation Opportunity in Hamilton Heights. Condo Sponsored Rent Stabilized Unit. Unlock the potential of this rare 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom apartment at 427 West 154th Street, Hamilton Heights, available for just $100,000. Perfect for investors looking to renovate, this spacious unit offers a blank canvas to transform and increase its value significantly. The apartment features generous living spaces and hardwood floors, ready for your creative touch. Situated in a prime location near parks, dining, and transit, this property promises strong rental income and appreciation. OR A PACKAGE DEAL OF 3 APARTMENTS COMING UP FOR $525,000. Contact me for more details. A

Key facts

• Hardwood floors
• $503 HOA
• Built 1985

Tags

• BLANK CANVAS TO TRANSFORM
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACES
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PRIME LOCATION NEAR PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed in building
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $503

Exterior

• Home design: Entry at ground level
• Exterior features: Exposures to the east, north, south and west

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: No laundry in building

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 79 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,088/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 5464% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 680 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 680 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.91%
• DSCR: 4.78
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.66% appreciation · 2.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.89×
• Total profit: $164,960
• Equity at exit: $73,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.1%
• Equity multiple: 14.73×
• Total profit: $384,304
• Equity at exit: $144,103

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10032

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,154/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$503
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$859
• Net cashflow: $1,981

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,581

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,038	-5% $2,009	+0% $1,981	+5% $1,953	+10% $1,925
Rent	-10% $1,658	-5% $1,820	+0% $1,981	+5% $2,143	+10% $2,304
Rate	-1.0pp $2,031	-0.5pp $2,007	base $1,981	+0.5pp $1,955	+1.0pp $1,929

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 W 135th St Unit 9G New York, NY	3.0	2.0	1032	$5,500	$5.33	6d	1	1.04mi
132 W 134th St New York, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$4,500	$6.00	25d	1	1.17mi
40 Pinehurst Ave Ph 7B New York, NY	2.0	2.0	1043	$5,200	$4.99	12d	1	1.30mi
1203 River Rd Unit 9D Edgewater, NJ	1.0	1.0	880	$3,350	$3.81	25d	1	1.44mi
230 W 126th St Unit 20C New York, NY	2.0	1.0	860	$4,555	$5.30	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $503 · $6,036/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 680 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 679 DOM
3. 2026-05-06
   status Active
4. 2024-07-16
   listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,154 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,154 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,154
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,925
• − Management: −$3,925
• − HOA: −$6,036
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $24,009
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,762
• After-tax cash flow: $18,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: New York County · 1,599,927 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 55,610
• Household income: $56,829
• Rent vs Own: 91.5% rent · 8.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5464.0

Population outlook (New York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,825,725 people
• By 2030: 1,904,611 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 2,052,719 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 2,206,601 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 2,509,427 · +37.4%
• By 2100: 2,702,933 · +48.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% White 17% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 44% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 54% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · New York

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 82.4% · R 17.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 72.2pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+74.5 2016: D+77.2 2012: D+69.6 2008: D+72.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.66%
• Current HPI: 431.3199
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.84%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — RLS at REBNY
• 2024-07-16 Listed $100,000 RLS at REBNY

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,154 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.