5275 Breaker Cir · Morgan's Point Resort, TX 76502

$119,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 868 sqft · Manufactured public records · 221 Days on market

Built 1992 10,750 sqft lot $137/sqft · 101% above area $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful lake are living. This charming 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom single-wide manufactured home offers comfort, convenience and a relaxing lake life just minutes from the water. Step into a cozy open layout perfect for easy living. Outside you will love sitting on the covered front deck enjoying the deer as they roam across your yard. The property includes boat storage, covered carports and a fully wooden fenced backyard with additional storage for lawn equipment and outdoor gear. Located in the Lakeaire community with a HOA that allows access to the community boat ramp, pool, park, basket ball courts and pavilion. This is the perfect place to call home and enjoy all your outdoor lake activities. Just a short drive into town for all your needs.

Key facts

• Covered carports
• Lake area living
• Community boat ramp

Tags

• LAKE AREA LIVING
• COVERED FRONT DECK
• BOAT STORAGE
• COVERED CARPORTS
• FULLY WOODEN FENCED BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $707 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 2.5% in Morgan's Point Resort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 1114 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.46%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,250
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: 100.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5504 Helm Ln	0.55mi	2/2.0	952 (+10%)	15mo	$115,000	$121	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $20,333
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $54,790
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76502

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 1114
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $728/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $942

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13550 Kuykendall Mountain Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,800	$2.78	44d	1	1.18mi
14572 Kuykendall Mountain Rd Temple, TX	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,200	$1.08	44d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,000 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $119,000 Active 220 DOM
3. 2026-02-21
   price $119,000 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful lake are living. This charming 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom single-wide manufactured home offers comfort, convenience and a relaxing lake life just minutes from the water. Step into a cozy open layout perfect for easy living. Outside you will love sitting on the covered front deck enjoying the deer as they roam across your yard. The property includes boat storage, covered carports and a fully wooden fenced backyard with additional storage for lawn equipment and outdoor gear. Located in the Lakeaire community with a HOA that allows access to the community boat ramp, pool, park, basket ball courts and pavilion. This is the perfect place to call home and enjoy all your outdoor lake activities. Just a short drive into town for all your needs.

4. 2025-11-05
   price $129,000 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful lake are living. This charming 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom single-wide manufactured home offers comfort, convenience and a relaxing lake life just minutes from the water. Step into a cozy open layout perfect for easy living. Outside you will love sitting on the covered front deck enjoying the deer as they roam across your yard. The property includes boat storage, covered carports and a fully wooden fenced backyard with additional storage for lawn equipment and outdoor gear. Located in the Lakeaire community with a HOA that allows access to the community boat ramp, pool, park, basket ball courts and pavilion. This is the perfect place to call home and enjoy all your outdoor lake activities. Just a short drive into town for all your needs.

5. 2025-10-22
   listed $137,500 Active 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful lake are living. This charming 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom single-wide manufactured home offers comfort, convenience and a relaxing lake life just minutes from the water. Step into a cozy open layout perfect for easy living. Outside you will love sitting on the covered front deck enjoying the deer as they roam across your yard. The property includes boat storage, covered carports and a fully wooden fenced backyard with additional storage for lawn equipment and outdoor gear. Located in the Lakeaire community with a HOA that allows access to the community boat ramp, pool, park, basket ball courts and pavilion. This is the perfect place to call home and enjoy all your outdoor lake activities. Just a short drive into town for all your needs.

6. 1989-06-06
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,178 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,450/yr (+$121/mo · 199.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$728
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $6,945
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,667
• After-tax cash flow: $6,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809860
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,239
• Composite: 37.62/100
• National rank: #4378
• State rank: #285 of 826 in TX

Livability — Morgan's Point Resort

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,669
• Household income: $82,088
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1890.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.80%
• Current HPI: 166.927
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $119,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $129,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $137,500 CTXMLS
• 1989-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $728 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.