3503 S Rose Gold Ave · Tucson Estates, AZ 85735

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 394 Days on market

Built 2003 5,096 sqft lot $164/sqft · at area comps Est $229k · at est. $97/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3 bedroom 2 bath home with AZ room and desert vegetation common area in the rear of home for privacy. Spacious kitchen with eating area at the back, living room in the middle, and split bedroom floor plan. Includes expanded storage/workshop area. Choose your flooring and move right in! Copper Crest is a gated Active Adult Community which includes swimming, spa, shuffleboard, pool table, work-out facility, hiking and biking, and more. And, all within a short distance of Tucson. And you own the land!

Key facts

• Pool table
• Spa
• Swimming

Tags

• EXPANDED STORAGE WORKSHOP AREA
• GATED ACTIVE ADULT COMMUNITY
• SWIMMING
• SPA
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• POOL TABLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($743/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 394 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,153 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 394 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.15%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,715
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: 0.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3524 S Beryl Ave	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (+4%)	3mo	$255,000	$174	84
3335 S Feldspar Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,477 (+5%)	4mo	$285,000	$193	80
3418 S Cadmium Loop	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (-3%)	12mo	$239,000	$175	74
3313 S Spectrum Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	10mo	$323,000	$240	74
3478 S Goldleaf Loop	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+7%)	11mo	$222,000	$147	72
3650 S White Gold Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	5mo	$192,700	$123	70
7496 W Bopp Rd	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	7mo	$128,000	$89	69
7730 W Edgestone St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	4mo	$225,000	$143	67
7707 W Copper Nugget Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+12%)	7mo	$260,000	$166	61
7751 W Gypsum St	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-12%)	11mo	$207,500	$168	58
7771 W Touchstone St	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-11%)	12mo	$150,000	$120	57
4175 S Desert Spur Ln	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-7%)	8mo	$115,000	$88	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-33,336
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-24,059
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85735

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,166/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$97
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,893

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $97 · $1,164/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 394 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 393 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 392 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 391 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 389 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,900 Active 386 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 385 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 384 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,900 Active 383 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 380 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 379 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 378 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 377 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 376 DOM
15. 2026-01-12
    price $234,900 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Nice 3 bedroom 2 bath home with AZ room and desert vegetation common area in the rear of home for privacy. Spacious kitchen with eating area at the back, living room in the middle, and split bedroom floor plan. Includes expanded storage/workshop area. Choose your flooring and move right in! Copper Crest is a gated Active Adult Community which includes swimming, spa, shuffleboard, pool table, work-out facility, hiking and biking, and more. And, all within a short distance of Tucson. And you own the land!

16. 2025-05-20
    listed $239,900 Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Nice 3 bedroom 2 bath home with AZ room and desert vegetation common area in the rear of home for privacy. Spacious kitchen with eating area at the back, living room in the middle, and split bedroom floor plan. Includes expanded storage/workshop area. Choose your flooring and move right in! Copper Crest is a gated Active Adult Community which includes swimming, spa, shuffleboard, pool table, work-out facility, hiking and biking, and more. And, all within a short distance of Tucson. And you own the land!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,166 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$352/yr (+$29/mo · 30.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,166
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,893
• − Management: −$1,893
• − HOA: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$3,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$761
• After-tax cash flow: $1,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,893

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 41% Two or more races 19% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.03%
• Current HPI: 301.1413
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $234,900 MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-20 Listed $239,900 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,166 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.