301 Keystone St · Bay City, MI 48706

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 993 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1911 5,663 sqft lot Est $120k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This mid-renovation bungalow has newer windows, patio doors, and siding. The main level has newer LVP flooring. Extra tall ceilings and large, open living and dining rooms. Room to expand into the attic space. Front porch needs full renovation from front steps fire. The seller is still working on rebuilding the porch.

Key facts

• Patio doors
• Newer lvp flooring
• Newer windows

Tags

• NEWER WINDOWS
• PATIO DOORS
• NEWER LVP FLOORING
• EXTRA TALL CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No additional financial details provided
• Financial info: Annual tax amount: $2,033
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built area above grade: 993 square feet
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.13 acres; Lot dimensions: 5,500

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance list provided
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Basement
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 6.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $70k implies a 259% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.09%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,153
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
705 Sidney St	0.38mi	2/1.5	1,008 (+2%)	0mo	$175,000	$174	78
1107 Moore St	0.32mi	2/1.0	1,024 (+3%)	4mo	$72,000	$70	77
305 Marston St	0.29mi	2/1.0	948 (-4%)	4mo	$80,000	$84	76
1210 E Smith St	0.30mi	2/1.0	900 (-9%)	3mo	$115,000	$128	68
202 Elm St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+5%)	1mo	$72,000	$69	66
427 James St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,088 (+10%)	3mo	$131,000	$120	66
602 Transit St	0.35mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,056 (+6%)	1mo	$156,500	$148	65
403 Bradley St	0.45mi	2/1.0	912 (-8%)	2mo	$80,000	$88	63
402 State St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+1%)	3mo	$109,000	$109	61
1115 Litchfield St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,012 (+2%)	3mo	$122,000	$121	58
300 W Smith St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+11%)	4mo	$147,000	$134	43
118 AUSABLE STATE Rd	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,131 (+14%)	3mo	$155,000	$137	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $26,269
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $71,486
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,447 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,884/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $629	-5% $609	+0% $590	+5% $570	+10% $550
Rent	-10% $475	-5% $532	+0% $590	+5% $647	+10% $704
Rate	-1.0pp $625	-0.5pp $607	base $590	+0.5pp $571	+1.0pp $553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	45d	1	0.88mi
605 E Jane St Bay City, MI	1.0	1.0	754	$1,650	$2.19	45d	1	1.35mi
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   This mid-renovation bungalow has newer windows, patio doors, and siding. The main level has newer LVP flooring. Extra tall ceilings and large, open living and dining rooms. Room to expand into the attic space. Front porch needs full renovation from front steps fire. The seller is still working on rebuilding the porch.

6. 2026-06-16
   listed $70,000 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   This mid-renovation bungalow has newer windows, patio doors, and siding. The main level has newer LVP flooring. Extra tall ceilings and large, open living and dining rooms. Room to expand into the attic space. Front porch needs full renovation from front steps fire. The seller is still working on rebuilding the porch.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,884 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,884 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,884
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,389
• − Management: −$1,389
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $6,390
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,534
• After-tax cash flow: $5,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $70,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-16 Listed $70,000 REALCOMP
• 2011-04-20 Sold (MLS) $19,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-10-28 Listed $21,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2002-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,884 · -32.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.