1816 Marlin Dr · Paloma Creek, TX 76227

$300,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,761 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2004 5,358 sqft lot $109/sqft · 15% below area Est $352k · 15% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath residence in the highly sought-after Paloma Creek community. Featuring stylish upgrades throughout, this move-in ready home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and modern design. Step inside to discover a spacious open-concept layout with abundant natural light and inviting living spaces ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The updated kitchen boasts modern finishes, upgraded countertops and cabinets perfect for home chefs and gatherings alike. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with an updated ensuite bathroom featuring refreshed fixtures and finishes. Additional bathrooms have also been tho

Key facts

• Access to parks
• Access to pools
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• UPDATED ENSUITE BATHROOM
• ATTACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• ACCESS TO PARKS
• ACCESS TO POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot less than 0.5 acre; Parcel ID R265070
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee; HOA fee covers grounds maintenance and management; HOA managed by FirstService Residential

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Driveway
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Residential property; Deed restrictions apply
• Construction: Built in 2004; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Few trees on the lot; Community pool, park, and playground nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms, including a primary bedroom on the second floor and three additional bedrooms on the second floor; First-floor office
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom (three total bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Three living areas; One dining area; Eight total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.5% in Paloma Creek — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#125 in TX, #3,857 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Catherine Bell El (math 22% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,954 of 4,322 statewide, top 69%, 650 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Denton ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1925 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,009 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.23%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,455
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -14.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1713 Canvasback	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,673 (-3%)	0mo	$299,900	$112	88
1405 Cardinal Way	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,772 (+0%)	1mo	$350,000	$126	80
840 Fireside Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,763 (+0%)	1mo	$589,000	$213	72
624 Cedarwood St	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,957 (+7%)	1mo	$499,900	$169	70
821 Sandbox Dr	0.51mi	4/3.5	2,799 (+1%)	1mo	$589,900	$211	69
917 Warbler	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,779 (+1%)	1mo	$330,000	$119	69
304 Bluefinch Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,660 (-4%)	0mo	$369,900	$139	67
752 Sandbox Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	3,037 (+10%)	1mo	$675,000	$222	61
1832 Ringtail Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,877 (+4%)	2mo	$355,000	$123	58
708 Parkland Dr	0.57mi	4/3.5	2,900 (+5%)	3mo	$510,000	$176	58
1728 Flamingo Dr	0.52mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,000 (+9%)	2mo	$349,000	$116	55
1032 Shearwater Ave	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,497 (-10%)	2mo	$305,000	$122	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-70,618
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-109,340
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1925
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,655 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$580 /mo · $6,955/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,942

Max offer price $260,009

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-57	-5% $-141	+0% $-226	+5% $-311	+10% $-396
Rent	-10% $-436	-5% $-331	+0% $-226	+5% $-122	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-75	-0.5pp $-150	base $-226	+0.5pp $-304	+1.0pp $-383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1817 Heron Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2673	$2,599	$0.97	9d	1	0.07mi
1701 Heron Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	2062	$2,100	$1.02	7d	1	0.18mi
720 Field Xing Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1930	$2,850	$1.48	9d	1	0.28mi
524 Oakmoss St Aubrey, TX	5.0	4.0	2829	$3,200	$1.13	1d	1	0.30mi
1412 Morning Dove Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2166	$1,995	$0.92	22d	1	0.37mi
5101 Sailcloth St Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	3320	$3,600	$1.08	1d	1	0.38mi
608 Partridge Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$2,600	$1.05	45d	1	0.39mi
916 Partridge Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	2081	$2,300	$1.11	45d	1	0.40mi
1809 Turtledove Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	2673	$2,251	$0.84	1d	1	0.50mi
1237 Mallard Crk Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2761	$6,200	$2.25	45d	1	0.52mi
211 Parakeet Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	1975	$2,350	$1.19	45d	1	0.53mi
853 Field Xing Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	3068	$3,350	$1.09	45d	1	0.58mi
1220 Mockingbird Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	3009	$3,000	$1.00	20d	1	0.59mi
850 Warbler Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2338	$2,350	$1.01	45d	1	0.60mi
1604 Flamingo Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	2011	$2,280	$1.13	1d	1	0.60mi
1044 Aviary Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	2166	$2,200	$1.02	45d	1	0.63mi
1705 Nighthawk Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2998	$2,999	$1.00	1d	1	0.63mi
1016 Aviary Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2583	$2,500	$0.97	45d	1	0.63mi
925 Warbler Aubrey, TX	5.0	3.5	3055	$3,395	$1.11	45d	1	0.66mi
1050 Warbler Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2166	$2,099	$0.97	12d	1	0.68mi
1404 Bluebird Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	1990	$2,145	$1.08	6d	1	0.68mi
832 Blue Heron Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	2060	$2,000	$0.97	14d	1	0.68mi
1072 Aviary Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2583	$2,395	$0.93	1d	1	0.69mi
704 Lighthouse Ln Savannah, TX	4.0	2.0	2041	$2,400	$1.18	45d	1	0.71mi
1708 Kittyhawk Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2928	$2,700	$0.92	20d	1	0.71mi
304 Hummingbird Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	2055	$2,220	$1.08	9d	1	0.73mi
1517 Barrier Island Dr Aubrey, TX	5.0	4.5	4080	$3,499	$0.86	26d	1	0.73mi
1808 Ringtail Dr Little Elm, TX	5.0	3.0	2800	$3,390	$1.21	5d	1	0.73mi
5136 Shallow Pond Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	2116	$2,600	$1.23	20d	1	0.74mi
1716 Ringtail Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2998	$2,730	$0.91	45d	1	0.76mi
1412 Kittyhawk Dr Little Elm, TX	5.0	3.5	2928	$3,500	$1.20	19d	1	0.77mi
1401 Barrier Island Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	3276	$3,700	$1.13	45d	1	0.78mi
404 Hummingbird Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	3447	$2,800	$0.81	26d	1	0.79mi
1204 E Shawnee Dr Savannah, TX	4.0	3.5	3241	$3,400	$1.05	13d	1	0.82mi
1121 Golden Eagle Ct Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,600	$1.11	45d	1	0.85mi
7124 Dragonfly Ln Aubrey, TX	5.0	3.0	2174	$2,950	$1.36	45d	1	0.87mi
700 Sedona St Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.5	3693	$3,500	$0.95	45d	1	0.89mi
601 Hummingbird Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2868	$7,500	$2.62	45d	1	0.93mi
1129 Quail Dove Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	3125	$2,795	$0.89	22d	1	0.94mi
928 Lighthouse Ln Savannah, TX	3.0	2.0	2001	$2,499	$1.25	4d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $300,000 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active Option Contract 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active Option Contract 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active Option Contract 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active Option Contract 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $300,000 Active Option Contract 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $300,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-05-15
    listed $330,000 Active 1288-char remark
13. 2023-12-19
    status Active
14. 2023-11-22
    historical
15. 2023-09-17
    price $385,000
16. 2023-09-09
    price $395,000
17. 2023-08-22
    listed $399,000 Active
18. 2023-03-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,955 · $580/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,955 · $580/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$6,955
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,549
• − Management: −$2,549
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$7,777
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,866
• After-tax cash flow: $-850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Paloma Creek

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #3857

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paloma Creek, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-06-06 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $330,000 NTREIS
• 2023-12-19 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-11-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-09-17 Price Changed $385,000 NTREIS
• 2023-09-09 Price Changed $395,000 NTREIS
• 2023-08-22 Listed $399,000 NTREIS
• 2023-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,955 · -6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.