9528 Xenia St · Moon Lake, FL 34654

$139,990

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1988 7,701 sqft lot Est $130k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just in time for the holidays! Step into a beautifully remodeled home featuring a brand-new roof, brand-new central A/C, and fresh updates throughout. Enjoy modern finishes, a bright open feel, and a layout perfect for easy living. With all the heavy lifting already done, this is the worry-free Florida home you’ve been waiting for. Move-in ready, fully updated, and priced to move — don’t miss out on this one!

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Fully updated
• Brand-new roof

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• BRAND-NEW CENTRAL A/C
• MODERN FINISHES
• MOVE-IN READY
• FULLY UPDATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.18 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; Faces north; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as single wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $140k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.86%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,284
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11940 Terra Ceia Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0 (+1)	900 (-3%)	8mo	$80,000	$89	64
10149 Huntley St	0.69mi	2/2.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	12mo	$135,000	$141	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-8,627
• Equity at exit: $20,873

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-683
• Equity at exit: $12,104

Cash invested: $39,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,061/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,115

Max offer price $139,990

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $369	-5% $329	+0% $289	+5% $250	+10% $210
Rent	-10% $172	-5% $231	+0% $289	+5% $348	+10% $406
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $325	base $289	+0.5pp $253	+1.0pp $216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,998
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9251 Adler St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1006	$1,450	$1.44	25d	1	0.43mi
13015 Midvale Ave New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	6d	1	0.88mi
11691 Buchner Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	993	$1,325	$1.33	0d	64	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $139,990 Pending 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,990 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,990 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
5. 2026-05-12
   price $139,990
6. 2026-04-21
   price $148,000
7. 2026-04-14
   status Active
8. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
9. 2026-02-11
   price $150,000
10. 2026-01-26
    price $159,000
11. 2026-01-05
    price $165,000
12. 2025-12-26
    price $169,000
13. 2025-12-04
    listed $174,990 Active
14. 2025-08-20
    soldstatus $49,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,061 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$101/yr (+$8/mo · 9.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,061
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,422
• − Management: −$1,422
• − Depreciation: −$4,072
• Taxable income: $1,256
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$302
• After-tax cash flow: $3,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Moon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #22850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moon Lake, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+182.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $139,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $148,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Listed $174,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $49,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,061 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.