1223 E Carol Dr · Shawnee, OK 74804

$146,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1960 6,251 sqft lot Est $156k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Cape Cod-Inspired Home with Multiple Living Spaces! Step into the warmth and character of this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath frame home offering plenty of space and flexibility. Built in 1959-60, this inviting property features two living areas, providing room for entertaining, relaxing, or creating a home office or hobby space. The cozy owner's suite is enhanced by a wood-burning stove, creating the perfect retreat during cooler months. The kitchen is equipped with a gas range, ideal for those who enjoy cooking and entertaining. Outside, you'll find a covered patio overlooking the backyard, offering a great space for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or gatherings with family a

Key facts

• Storage building
• Covered patio
• Gas range

Tags

• MULTIPLE LIVING SPACES
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• GAS RANGE
• COVERED PATIO
• STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.9% in Shawnee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#217 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shawnee (town): math 11% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #238 of 270 in OK (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sequoyah Es (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #354 of 845 statewide, top 47%, 332 students, 0% FRL); Shawnee Ms (math 6% / reading 14%, grade F, #277 of 345 statewide, top 83%, 711 students, 0% FRL); Shawnee Hs (math 16% / reading 35%, grade F, #142 of 447 statewide, top 32%, 987 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 70% district-wide (70 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 183 units permitted in Pottawatomie County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pottawatomie County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $146k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,180 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.84%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1205 Carol Dr	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,172 (-8%)	10mo	$90,000	$77	74
1301 Rickey Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,180 (-8%)	2mo	$137,700	$117	65
1210 E Independence St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,128 (-12%)	7mo	$157,500	$140	62
1504 N Center Ave	0.23mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,458 (+14%)	4mo	$95,000	$65	58
806 E Midland St	0.71mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,242 (-3%)	3mo	$142,500	$115	54
4 Seneca Dr	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,192 (-7%)	11mo	$168,500	$141	52
808 E Midland St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,315 (+3%)	10mo	$174,900	$133	51
1545 N Pennsylvania Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,379 (+8%)	12mo	$168,900	$122	50
1414 Thompson Dr	0.28mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,461 (+14%)	10mo	$169,900	$116	48
32 Comanche Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,136 (-11%)	1mo	$150,000	$132	44
13 Kiowa	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+14%)	12mo	$181,000	$124	35
1529 N Oklahoma Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,432 (+12%)	12mo	$172,000	$120	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-18,183
• Equity at exit: $21,769

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-10,702
• Equity at exit: $12,623

Cash invested: $40,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74804

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,222 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $503/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,099

Max offer price $146,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $138	+0% $97	+5% $56	+10% $14
Rent	-10% $0	-5% $49	+0% $97	+5% $145	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $134	base $97	+0.5pp $59	+1.0pp $21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,500
• Closing costs: $4,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
721 E Wallace St Shawnee, OK	2.0	1.0	1176	$850	$0.72	6d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $146,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $146,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $146,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $146,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $146,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $146,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $146,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $146,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $146,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-09
    listed $146,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $503 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,314 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$811/yr (+$68/mo · 161.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,178
• − Property taxes: −$503
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,173
• − Management: −$1,173
• − Depreciation: −$4,247
• Taxable loss: −$1,343
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$322
• After-tax cash flow: $1,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shawnee
• NCES district ID: 4027570
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $32,128
• Composite: 11.21/100
• National rank: #9724
• State rank: #238 of 270 in OK

Livability — Shawnee

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #15593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shawnee, OK
• County: Pottawatomie County · 45,194 people
• City population: 45,194
• Metro: Shawnee, OK
• Population (ZIP): 23,227
• Household income: $67,631
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 442.0

Population outlook (Pottawatomie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,622 people
• By 2030: 78,816 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 82,766 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 86,031 · +12.3%
• By 2075: 93,316 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 95,820 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 11% Native American 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pottawatomie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.2% · R 72.7% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.1pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+46.0 2016: R+46.5 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.01%
• Current HPI: 247.115
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.49%
• Metro: Shawnee, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+204.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $146,000 MLSOK
• 1997-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $503 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.