8515 31st Avenue Ct S #37 · Lakewood, WA 98499

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 932 sqft · Manufactured public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1973 $70/sqft · 6% above area Est $63k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in a desirable 55+ manufactured home park in Lakewood, Washington. This home offers comfort, style, and convenience with thoughtful updates throughout. Featuring a nicely remodeled interior, this home includes granite slab countertops, large kitchen, LVP flooring throughout, and tile flooring in the kitchen for a clean and modern feel. The spacious layout offers a large laundry room, extra storage, and plenty of natural light. Outside, you’ll enjoy beautiful landscaping, garden space, and rare parking for up to 4 vehicles. This is a great opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a peaceful and wel

Key facts

• Remodeled interior
• Large kitchen
• Large laundry room

Tags

• REMODELED INTERIOR
• GRANITE SLAB COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE KITCHEN
• LVP FLOORING
• TILE FLOORING
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $919 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 2.6% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in WA, #4,754 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, cost of living D, crime F.
• Clover Park School District (urban): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #190 of 291 in WA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 129 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.60%
• DSCR: 3.70
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,611
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: 3.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3121 S 86th street Ct #87	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	950 (+2%)	14mo	$120,000	$126	73
8527 31st Ave S	0.04mi	2/1.0	840 (-10%)	11mo	$40,000	$48	73
8607 32nd Avenue Ct S #118	0.10mi	2/1.5	1,056 (+13%)	2mo	$69,000	$65	70
3250 S 77th St #18	0.53mi	2/2.0	960 (+3%)	6mo	$35,000	$36	61
3213 83rd St S #22	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,061 (+14%)	8mo	$125,000	$118	53
3314 96th St S #67	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,001 (+7%)	14mo	$105,000	$105	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $47,987
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.43×
• Total profit: $117,100
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98499

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $209/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $919

Break-even live

Break-even rent $488

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8333 32nd Ave S Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,695	$1.99	1d	5	0.14mi
2611 84th Street Ct S Tacoma, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,895	$2.23	21d	6	0.14mi
3422 86th St S Lakewood, WA	1.0	1.0	672	$1,295	$1.93	10d	2	0.27mi
8420 S Tacoma Way Unit 1/2 Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,995	$2.49	18d	1	0.42mi
3418 90th St S Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	43d	1	0.43mi
3102 92nd St S Unit 3104 Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	708	$1,497	$2.11	21d	1	0.45mi
3407-3411 92nd St S Unit 17 Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,395	$1.99	24d	1	0.47mi
3411 92nd St S Unit 15 Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,595	$2.28	24d	1	0.48mi
3415 92nd St S Apt 2 Tacoma, WA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,200	$1.85	16d	1	0.50mi
3415 92nd St S Lakewood, WA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,200	$1.85	18d	1	0.50mi
2604 92nd St S Unit B Lakewood, WA	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,995	$1.78	24d	1	0.51mi
2604 92nd St S Unit B Lakewood, WA	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,995	$1.78	43d	1	0.51mi
8740 S Hosmer St #155 Tacoma, WA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	24d	1	0.57mi
3232 94th St S Unit 15 Lakewood, WA	1.0	1.0	632	$1,150	$1.82	24d	1	0.59mi
9324 S Tacoma Way Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,995	$2.49	15d	1	0.66mi
8801 S Hosmer St Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	443	$1,795	$4.05	1d	26	0.67mi
2425 S 96th St Tacoma, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,225	$1.44	1d	15	0.69mi
9210 S Hosmer St Tacoma, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,685	$2.14	1d	12	0.70mi
1801 S 84th St Tacoma, WA	1.0	1.0	725	$1,295	$1.79	24d	1	0.74mi
9318 S Steele St Unit Q367 Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	43d	1	0.76mi
9318 S Steele St Unit DD520 Tacoma, WA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	43d	1	0.76mi
9318 S Steele St Unit D61 Tacoma, WA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	15d	1	0.76mi
1718 S 84th St Tacoma, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	730	$1,445	$1.98	10d	2	0.81mi
1819 S 93rd St Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.0	912	$1,588	$1.74	18d	2	0.81mi
1819 S 93rd St Unit A Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.0	912	$1,575	$1.73	11d	1	0.81mi
1721 S 82nd St Unit 1813-10 Tacoma, WA	1.0	1.0	609	$1,300	$2.13	2d	1	0.83mi
1721 S 82nd St Unit 1807-02 Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.0	897	$1,500	$1.67	2d	1	0.83mi
9314 S Ash St Tacoma, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,683	$2.10	1d	21	0.85mi
1721 S 82nd St Tacoma, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	753	$1,500	$1.99	5d	4	0.86mi
1721 S 82nd St Tacoma, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	753	$1,400	$1.86	23d	3	0.86mi
2205 S 74th St Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.0	880	$1,720	$1.95	3d	1	0.86mi
9315 S Ash St Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.5	828	$1,550	$1.87	16d	1	0.89mi
2415 100th Street Ct S Tacoma, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,600	$1.75	5d	2	0.97mi
10102 Sales Rd S Lakewood, WA	1.0	1.0	480	$1,495	$3.11	2d	22	1.03mi
10102 Sales Rd S Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0–1.5	596	$1,550	$2.60	43d	26	1.03mi
6815 S Warner St Tacoma, WA	3.0	1.0	1034	$2,400	$2.32	2d	1	1.06mi
6830 Tacoma Mall Blvd Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,560	$1.59	7d	1	1.18mi
2201 104th St S Tacoma, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,998	$2.15	1d	16	1.26mi
1809 105th Street Ct S Tacoma, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,895	$1.80	1d	7	1.39mi
5101 88th Street Ct SW Lakewood, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	832	$2,258	$2.71	2d	16	1.39mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $65,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-03-10
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $209 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$428/yr (+$36/mo · 204.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$209
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $10,578
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,539
• After-tax cash flow: $8,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clover Park School District
• NCES district ID: 5301410
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,344
• Composite: 40.11/100
• National rank: #7858
• State rank: #190 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4754

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 61,673
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 32,464
• Household income: $67,292
• Rent vs Own: 62.1% rent · 37.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2313.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 8% Pacific Islander 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 16% Korean 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -536.54%
• Current HPI: 288.2797
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $65,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $209 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.