1620 La Joya Ave · Mission, TX 78572

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1994 1,924 sqft lot $110/sqft · at area comps Est $45k · at est. $20/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1 bedroom 1, 1 bath, mobile home is nestled within a desirable 55+ community in the heart of Mission, Tx. This cozy residence offers a peaceful and low-maintenance lifestyle, perfect for those looking to relax and enjoy their surroundings. Residents have access to a variety of resort-style amenities, including a main hall with four pool tables, a large swimming pool, a fully equipped exercise room, eight shuffleboard courts, and three pickleball courts. The community is vibrant and active, offering a wide range of social events and activities for residents to enjoy year-round. Conveniently located less than a minute from the highway, this home provides easy access while still maintaining a quiet and welcoming atmosphere. Don’t miss the opportunity to be part of this friendly and amenity-rich community!

Key facts

• Shuffleboard courts
• Social events
• Pickleball courts

Tags

• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• LARGE SWIMMING POOL
• FULLY EQUIPPED EXERCISE ROOM
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• SOCIAL EVENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($907 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sharyland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #406 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.17%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $44,511
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: 1.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1410 E Daytona Dr	0.54mi	1/1.0 (-1)	384 (-6%)	6mo	$46,000	$120	55
706 E Tropical Circle Dr	0.48mi	1/1.0 (-1)	416 (+2%)	24mo	$54,000	$130	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $16,399
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.17×
• Total profit: $39,929
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $907 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $495/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $400

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1004 N Stewart Rd Unit 1012-07 Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	250	$475	$1.90	43d	1	0.65mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    listed $45,000 Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    This 1 bedroom 1, 1 bath, mobile home is nestled within a desirable 55+ community in the heart of Mission, Tx. This cozy residence offers a peaceful and low-maintenance lifestyle, perfect for those looking to relax and enjoy their surroundings. Residents have access to a variety of resort-style amenities, including a main hall with four pool tables, a large swimming pool, a fully equipped exercise room, eight shuffleboard courts, and three pickleball courts. The community is vibrant and active, offering a wide range of social events and activities for residents to enjoy year-round. Conveniently located less than a minute from the highway, this home provides easy access while still maintaining a quiet and welcoming atmosphere. Don’t miss the opportunity to be part of this friendly and amenity-rich community!

16. 2023-01-19
    soldstatus
17. 2022-02-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $495 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$329/yr (+$27/mo · 66.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$495
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$871
• − Management: −$871
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $4,356
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,045
• After-tax cash flow: $3,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sharyland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839930
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $57,792
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5214
• State rank: #406 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $45,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $495 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.