308 Saw Mill Rd · Josephine, TX 75189

$249,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,577 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition 7,754 sqft lot $159/sqft · 14% below area Est $291k · 14% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price to sell property in the peaceful Magnolia subdivision of Josephine. Featuring 4 beds, 2 bathrooms and 2 car garage with a decent and private fencing backyard, perfect for pets or weekend gatherings. Residents of Magnolia also benefit from community amenities, including a neighborhood pool. Tenant is occupying the property on a month to month lease. Please do not disturb tenants and contact listing agent for a private tour.

Key facts

• Neighborhood pool
• 7,754 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PRIVATE FENCING BACKYARD
• NEIGHBORHOOD POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1301 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,316 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,537
• List price: $249,999
• Delta: -13.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
740 Meadow Creek Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (+3%)	2mo	$249,000	$153	79
503 Silo Cir	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,732 (+10%)	2mo	$249,900	$144	75
504 Patina St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,533 (-3%)	4mo	$239,990	$157	74
1007 Stockyard St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (-8%)	2mo	$240,000	$166	66
1102 Stockyard St	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,791 (+14%)	2mo	$244,900	$137	64
403 Pine Hollow Way	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (-8%)	1mo	$235,000	$162	64
800 Rustic Way	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+14%)	3mo	$275,000	$153	62
504 Flora Ct	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+9%)	2mo	$329,900	$192	49
412 Wrangler Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-8%)	2mo	$237,000	$163	48
406 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-11%)	0mo	$251,010	$179	45
407 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,801 (+14%)	2mo	$273,990	$152	42
409 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-11%)	3mo	$270,990	$193	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-57,071
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-87,938
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1301
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,310 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$527 /mo · $6,320/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,509

Max offer price $222,316

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-15	-5% $-86	+0% $-157	+5% $-227	+10% $-298
Rent	-10% $-339	-5% $-248	+0% $-157	+5% $-65	+10% $26
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-93	base $-157	+0.5pp $-221	+1.0pp $-287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	8d	1	0.07mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	26d	1	0.11mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	45d	1	0.14mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	6d	1	0.21mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	0.23mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	1d	1	0.23mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	3d	1	0.23mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	14d	1	0.25mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	45d	1	0.27mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	9d	1	0.32mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	0d	1	0.38mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	45d	1	0.42mi
1210 Honeysuckle Dr Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	1995	$2,100	$1.05	14d	1	0.52mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	0.54mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	26d	1	0.55mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	45d	1	0.55mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	26d	1	0.56mi
503 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,795	$1.39	4d	1	0.57mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	0.57mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	45d	1	0.59mi
711 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	9d	1	0.62mi
1503 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	45d	1	0.70mi
1501 Bridle Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	45d	1	0.70mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	45d	1	0.74mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	8d	1	0.74mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	17d	1	0.74mi
1413 Thunder Canyon Way Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	2006	$2,500	$1.25	45d	1	0.79mi
903 Shear Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1898	$2,000	$1.05	4d	1	1.13mi
1910 Bailer Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,995	$1.25	26d	1	1.14mi
2000 Bailer Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1947	$2,500	$1.28	4d	1	1.15mi
816 Country Rd Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2080	$2,550	$1.23	0d	1	1.16mi
2008 Bailer Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,975	$1.31	20d	1	1.18mi
304 Red Stream Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	20d	1	1.26mi
305 Charmed Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,000	$1.35	0d	1	1.32mi
601 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2090	$2,075	$0.99	45d	1	1.34mi
916 Sunrise Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,900	$1.20	20d	1	1.38mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	0d	1	1.40mi
1208 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,095	$1.00	45d	1	1.45mi
1216 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,000	$1.24	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,999 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,999 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,999 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,999 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,999 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,999 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,999 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,999 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,999 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $249,999 Active 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Price to sell property in the peaceful Magnolia subdivision of Josephine. Featuring 4 beds, 2 bathrooms and 2 car garage with a decent and private fencing backyard, perfect for pets or weekend gatherings. Residents of Magnolia also benefit from community amenities, including a neighborhood pool. Tenant is occupying the property on a month to month lease. Please do not disturb tenants and contact listing agent for a private tour.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,320 · $527/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,320 · $527/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,320
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,218
• − Management: −$2,218
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,039
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,449
• After-tax cash flow: $-431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Josephine, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, good exterior and interior, and a well-maintained yard. The property is move-in ready and would benefit from some cosmetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace standard windows with energy-efficient ones — Improved energy efficiency and better light control
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances home's appeal and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace standard windows with energy-efficient ones — Improved energy efficiency and better light control ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances home's appeal and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockwall County · 132,930 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 569.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $249,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,320 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.