38893 Juniper Tree Rd · Desert View Highlands, CA 93551

$415,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 998 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1954 0.28 ac lot Est $394k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful home in a sought-after neighborhood of desirable West Palmdale. This charming 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home, built in the 1970s, features thoughtful upgrades including newer HVAC and condenser units, owned solar, and a 2 car attached garage. The refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included. The property offers plenty of parking, side access, and possible RV parking. The lot is larger than most, with a spacious backyard and an additional lot area beyond, creating an opportunity for a backyard retreat, garden, or potential ADU. Come see this West Palmdale home today before it's gone.

Key facts

• Possible rv parking
• Spacious backyard
• Additional lot area

Tags

• NEWER HVAC
• OWNED SOLAR
• SIDE ACCESS
• POSSIBLE RV PARKING
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• ADDITIONAL LOT AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property has one unit; No accessory dwelling unit (ADU); Living area and lot size sourced from public records; Zoning: LCRA7000

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Attached house; One story; Entry at front; Attached property
• Construction: House structure; Year built information from public records
• Exterior features: Rectangular lot with desert landscaping in the back and a front yard; Street lighting, storm drains, and sidewalks in the neighborhood; Suburban setting; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Single-story layout; Front entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $354k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $354k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#304 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Palmdale Elementary (suburban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,147 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $415k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $353,677 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.75%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $394,210
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38821 Juniper Tree Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0	998 (0%)	3mo	$384,900	$386	92
38910 Sage Tree	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,026 (+3%)	6mo	$435,000	$424	80
38853 Mesquite Rd	0.11mi	3/1.5	950 (-5%)	10mo	$405,000	$426	77
38871 Yucca Tree	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+12%)	1mo	$430,000	$384	75
39026 11th St W	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,026 (+3%)	8mo	$380,000	$370	74
38841 Foxholm Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,085 (+9%)	0mo	$525,000	$484	61
38927 Deer Run Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+13%)	3mo	$385,000	$341	60
39202 Willowvale Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,132 (+13%)	2mo	$485,000	$428	59
39203 Foxholm	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,132 (+13%)	4mo	$475,000	$420	54
38953 Foxholm Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,139 (+14%)	4mo	$440,000	$386	52
39221 Foxholm Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,141 (+14%)	6mo	$419,000	$367	50
38810 Foxholm Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,139 (+14%)	10mo	$450,000	$395	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-59,071
• Equity at exit: $61,878

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-48,093
• Equity at exit: $35,882

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93551

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,537 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,306/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$743
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,322

Max offer price $415,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38441 5th St W Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	729	$2,395	$3.29	1d	15	1.05mi
570 Knollview Ct Palmdale, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	880	$3,145	$3.57	1d	11	1.05mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $415,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $415,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $415,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $415,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $415,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $415,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-05-03
   status Pending Sale

   Show marketing remark (611 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful home in a sought-after neighborhood of desirable West Palmdale. This charming 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home, built in the 1970s, features thoughtful upgrades including newer HVAC and condenser units, owned solar, and a 2 car attached garage. The refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included. The property offers plenty of parking, side access, and possible RV parking. The lot is larger than most, with a spacious backyard and an additional lot area beyond, creating an opportunity for a backyard retreat, garden, or potential ADU. Come see this West Palmdale home today before it's gone.

8. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 611-char remark

   Show marketing remark (611 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful home in a sought-after neighborhood of desirable West Palmdale. This charming 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home, built in the 1970s, features thoughtful upgrades including newer HVAC and condenser units, owned solar, and a 2 car attached garage. The refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included. The property offers plenty of parking, side access, and possible RV parking. The lot is larger than most, with a spacious backyard and an additional lot area beyond, creating an opportunity for a backyard retreat, garden, or potential ADU. Come see this West Palmdale home today before it's gone.

9. 2026-03-17
   listed $415,000 Active 611-char remark

   Show marketing remark (611 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful home in a sought-after neighborhood of desirable West Palmdale. This charming 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home, built in the 1970s, features thoughtful upgrades including newer HVAC and condenser units, owned solar, and a 2 car attached garage. The refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included. The property offers plenty of parking, side access, and possible RV parking. The lot is larger than most, with a spacious backyard and an additional lot area beyond, creating an opportunity for a backyard retreat, garden, or potential ADU. Come see this West Palmdale home today before it's gone.

10. 2026-03-16
    listed $415,000 Active
11. 2016-10-14
    soldstatus $160,000 Closed Sale 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Waiting for the right buyer to own this house, Cozy 3+1 Great for first time buyers, Large lot, Needs a little TLC. "Sold As Is" Available for showing next week.

12. 2016-10-14
    soldstatus $160,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Waiting for the right buyer to own this house, Cozy 3+1 Great for first time buyers, Large lot, Needs a little TLC. "Sold As Is" Available for showing next week.

13. 2016-10-14
    soldstatus $160,000

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Waiting for the right buyer to own this house, Cozy 3+1 Great for first time buyers, Large lot, Needs a little TLC. "Sold As Is" Available for showing next week.

14. 2016-08-31
    status Pending Sale 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Waiting for the right buyer to own this house, Cozy 3+1 Great for first time buyers, Large lot, Needs a little TLC. "Sold As Is" Available for showing next week.

15. 2016-08-31
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Waiting for the right buyer to own this house, Cozy 3+1 Great for first time buyers, Large lot, Needs a little TLC. "Sold As Is" Available for showing next week.

16. 2016-08-20
    status Active
17. 2016-08-19
    status Pending
18. 2016-08-15
    listed $160,000 Active 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Waiting for the right buyer to own this house, Cozy 3+1 Great for first time buyers, Large lot, Needs a little TLC. "Sold As Is" Available for showing next week.

19. 2016-08-14
    listed $160,000 Active
20. 2014-12-05
    soldstatus $145,000
21. 2014-10-16
    soldstatus $145,000
22. 2014-07-03
    listed $144,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,306 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,306 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$3,306
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,395
• − Management: −$3,395
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$5,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,212
• After-tax cash flow: $3,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmdale Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629580
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,652
• Composite: 25.34/100
• National rank: #12888
• State rank: #1147 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Desert View Highlands

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #10165

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute C Cost of living F Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Desert View Highlands, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,360
• Household income: $119,801
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 33% Two or more races 17% Black 10% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.22%
• Current HPI: 327.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+188.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-05-03 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $415,000 AVMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $415,000 CRMLS
• 2016-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-14 Sold (MLS) $160,000 AVMLS
• 2016-10-14 Sold (MLS) $160,000 CRMLS
• 2016-08-31 Pending — CRMLS
• 2016-08-31 Pending — AVMLS
• 2016-08-20 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2016-08-19 Pending — AVMLS
• 2016-08-15 Listed $160,000 CRMLS
• 2016-08-14 Listed $160,000 AVMLS
• 2014-12-05 Sold (MLS) $145,000 AVMLS
• 2014-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2014-07-03 Listed $144,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,306 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.