8610 Goodrich Rd · Rapids, NY 14032

$320,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,522 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1952 4.62 ac lot Est $557k · 43% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 8610 Goodrich - Almost 5 acres of country property with a 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom home with over 2,500 sf of living space. Bright kitchen, family room with a stone fireplace, first floor primary suite, 3 car detached garage, inground pool with hot tub and pool house.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Pool house
• Inground pool

Tags

• STONE FIREPLACE
• FIRST FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• INGROUND POOL
• HOT TUB
• POOL HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-603/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,176 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $292,770 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $557,362
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8340 Goodrich Rd	0.58mi	3/2.5	2,892 (+15%)	20mo	$640,000	$221	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-54,919
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-51,388
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14032

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$552 /mo · $6,621/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,991

Max offer price $311,118

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-16
   status Active
4. 2026-03-06
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-02-11
   price $320,000
6. 2026-02-04
   listed $355,000 Active
7. 2026-02-04
   historical
8. 2025-11-17
   price $355,000
9. 2025-08-22
   price $365,000
10. 2025-07-04
    price $380,000
11. 2025-06-06
    price $390,000
12. 2025-04-08
    price $400,000
13. 2025-02-11
    listed $410,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,621 · $552/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,621 · $552/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 3% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$6,621
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,811
• − Management: −$2,811
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$5,943
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,426
• After-tax cash flow: $823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rapids

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1176
• US rank: #25855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,359

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 19% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.32%
• Current HPI: 366.0549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-22.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-16 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-06 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $320,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $355,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $355,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $365,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $380,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $390,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $400,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-02-11 Listed $410,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,621 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.