2416 Shadow Ln #74 · Antioch, CA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $659 – $1,223
Heat risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 100°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 9/10 · Severe
- Unhealthy air days now
- 16 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +14.8/15.0
- Cash flow +7.6/30.0
- 1% rule +4.8/10.0
- Schools +3.8/10.0
- Rent growth +2.8/5.0
- Livability +2.8/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- DSCR +1.7/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$179,990
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Great Investment, Modern Living in a Secure, Gated Oasis Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this beautifully maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo. Located in a sought-after gated community, this home is flooded with natural light that highlights the sleek, open-concept kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. The seamless flow from the living area to your private open balcony makes it ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Beyond your front door, enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling community pool, professional BBQ area, and a dedicated pet space for your furry friends. Key Highlights: Worry-Free Living: HOA covers water, sewer, and garbage utilities. Convenience: Dedicated parking space included. Prime Location: Minutes from e-BART, Highway 4, local dining, and major shopping centers.
Key facts
- Gated community
- Community pool
- Pet area
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $180k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (21.2% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (2.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $142k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
- Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 11 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $54k; list at $180k implies a 234% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.98% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.85%
- Cash-on-cash
- -5.15%
- DSCR
- 0.77
- GRM
- 8.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $214,646
- List price
- $179,990
- Delta
- -16.15%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -27.8%
- Equity multiple
- 0.09×
- Total profit
- $-46,008
- Equity at exit
- $26,837
- IRR
- -38.6%
- Equity multiple
- -0.39×
- Total profit
- $-69,889
- Equity at exit
- $15,562
Cash invested: $50,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State California
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 94509
- Rents YoY
- 1.1%
- Active inventory
- 206
- Price-to-rent
- 8.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,760 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$944
- Tax from tax record
- −$102 /mo · $1,229/yr
- Insurance
- −$75
- HOA
- −$485
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$370
- Net cashflow
- $-216
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $44,998
- Closing costs
- $5,400
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 23 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2796 Entrada Cir Antioch, CA | — | 1.0 | 500 | $1,695 | $3.39 | 24d | 1 | 0.14mi |
| 2201 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1015 | $1,445 | $1.42 | 1d | 10 | 0.18mi |
| 2301 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–1.5 | 716 | $1,828 | $2.55 | 1d | 22 | 0.29mi |
| 2725 Del Oro Cir Antioch, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 580 | $1,795 | $3.09 | 11d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA | 2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 777 | $1,917 | $2.47 | 2d | 12 | 0.31mi |
| 2201 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 686 | $1,615 | $2.35 | 1d | 8 | 0.35mi |
| 1600 Aster Dr Antioch, CA | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 838 | $2,039 | $2.43 | 1d | 8 | 0.64mi |
| 2800 Gentrytown Dr Antioch, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 725 | $1,650 | $2.28 | 2d | 9 | 0.75mi |
| 619 W 17th St Unit C Antioch, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 560 | $1,795 | $3.21 | 21d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 2811 Cadiz Ln Antioch, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 715 | $1,351 | $1.89 | 21d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 2811 Cadiz Ln Antioch, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 803 | $1,391 | $1.73 | 1d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 616 1/2 W 16th St Antioch, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 646 | $1,950 | $3.02 | 2d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 616 1/2 W 16th St Antioch, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 646 | $1,950 | $3.02 | 5d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 318 Lawton St Antioch, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 650 | $1,850 | $2.85 | 24d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 318 Lawton St Antioch, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 650 | $1,850 | $2.85 | 44d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 1108 W 6th St Antioch, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 460 | $1,450 | $3.15 | 43d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 314 Lawton St #2 Antioch, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 637 | $1,495 | $2.35 | 5d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 314 Lawton St Antioch, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 637 | $1,550 | $2.43 | 14d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 3101 Buchanan Rd Antioch, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 837 | $1,750 | $2.09 | 1d | 4 | 1.04mi |
| 618 W 7th St Unit 5 Antioch, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $1,695 | $2.42 | 43d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 512 E St Unit C Antioch, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 469 | $1,645 | $3.51 | 43d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 3104 Lone Tree Way Antioch, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 650 | $1,450 | $2.23 | 14d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 3108 Lone Tree Way Antioch, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 650 | $1,550 | $2.38 | 14d | 1 | 1.32mi |
HOA detail condo
- Monthly dues
- $485 · $5,820/yr
- Likely covers
- watersewertrashpoolsecurity
- Assessments
- None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.
Listing history 47 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $179,990 Active 253 DOM
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2026-06-17days on market $179,990 Active 252 DOM
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2026-06-16days on market $179,990 Active 251 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $179,990 Active 250 DOM
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2026-06-13days on market $179,990 Active 248 DOM
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2026-06-13days on market $179,990 Active 247 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $179,990 Active 244 DOM
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2026-06-08days on market $179,990 Active 243 DOM
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2026-06-07days on market $179,990 Active 242 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $179,990 Active 239 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $179,990 Active 238 DOM
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2026-06-02days on market $179,990 Active 237 DOM
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2026-06-01days on market $179,990 Active 236 DOM
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2026-05-31days on market $179,990 Active 235 DOM
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2026-03-24status Active 846-char remark
Show marketing remark (846 chars)
Great Investment, Modern Living in a Secure, Gated Oasis Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this beautifully maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo. Located in a sought-after gated community, this home is flooded with natural light that highlights the sleek, open-concept kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. The seamless flow from the living area to your private open balcony makes it ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Beyond your front door, enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling community pool, professional BBQ area, and a dedicated pet space for your furry friends. Key Highlights: Worry-Free Living: HOA covers water, sewer, and garbage utilities. Convenience: Dedicated parking space included. Prime Location: Minutes from e-BART, Highway 4, local dining, and major shopping centers.
-
2026-03-20historical 846-char remark
Show marketing remark (846 chars)
Great Investment, Modern Living in a Secure, Gated Oasis Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this beautifully maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo. Located in a sought-after gated community, this home is flooded with natural light that highlights the sleek, open-concept kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. The seamless flow from the living area to your private open balcony makes it ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Beyond your front door, enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling community pool, professional BBQ area, and a dedicated pet space for your furry friends. Key Highlights: Worry-Free Living: HOA covers water, sewer, and garbage utilities. Convenience: Dedicated parking space included. Prime Location: Minutes from e-BART, Highway 4, local dining, and major shopping centers.
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2026-03-20$179,990 Active 846-char remark
Show marketing remark (846 chars)
Great Investment, Modern Living in a Secure, Gated Oasis Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this beautifully maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo. Located in a sought-after gated community, this home is flooded with natural light that highlights the sleek, open-concept kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. The seamless flow from the living area to your private open balcony makes it ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Beyond your front door, enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling community pool, professional BBQ area, and a dedicated pet space for your furry friends. Key Highlights: Worry-Free Living: HOA covers water, sewer, and garbage utilities. Convenience: Dedicated parking space included. Prime Location: Minutes from e-BART, Highway 4, local dining, and major shopping centers.
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2026-03-15historical $2,099
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2026-03-14historical $2,099
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2026-03-03$2,099
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2026-02-17historical $2,099
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2026-02-02price $2,099
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2026-01-31price $179,990 846-char remark
Show marketing remark (846 chars)
Great Investment, Modern Living in a Secure, Gated Oasis Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this beautifully maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo. Located in a sought-after gated community, this home is flooded with natural light that highlights the sleek, open-concept kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. The seamless flow from the living area to your private open balcony makes it ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Beyond your front door, enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling community pool, professional BBQ area, and a dedicated pet space for your furry friends. Key Highlights: Worry-Free Living: HOA covers water, sewer, and garbage utilities. Convenience: Dedicated parking space included. Prime Location: Minutes from e-BART, Highway 4, local dining, and major shopping centers.
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2026-01-19price $2,199
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2026-01-19$2,311
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2026-01-01$2,311
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2025-12-21price $189,990 846-char remark
Show marketing remark (846 chars)
Great Investment, Modern Living in a Secure, Gated Oasis Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this beautifully maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo. Located in a sought-after gated community, this home is flooded with natural light that highlights the sleek, open-concept kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. The seamless flow from the living area to your private open balcony makes it ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Beyond your front door, enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling community pool, professional BBQ area, and a dedicated pet space for your furry friends. Key Highlights: Worry-Free Living: HOA covers water, sewer, and garbage utilities. Convenience: Dedicated parking space included. Prime Location: Minutes from e-BART, Highway 4, local dining, and major shopping centers.
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2025-12-21historical $2,311
Show marketing remark (846 chars)
Great Investment, Modern Living in a Secure, Gated Oasis Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this beautifully maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo. Located in a sought-after gated community, this home is flooded with natural light that highlights the sleek, open-concept kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. The seamless flow from the living area to your private open balcony makes it ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Beyond your front door, enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling community pool, professional BBQ area, and a dedicated pet space for your furry friends. Key Highlights: Worry-Free Living: HOA covers water, sewer, and garbage utilities. Convenience: Dedicated parking space included. Prime Location: Minutes from e-BART, Highway 4, local dining, and major shopping centers.
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2025-12-06price $2,311
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2025-12-05historical $1,950
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2025-12-05$1,950
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2025-12-04$1,950
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2025-11-21price $199,950 846-char remark
Show marketing remark (846 chars)
Great Investment, Modern Living in a Secure, Gated Oasis Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this beautifully maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo. Located in a sought-after gated community, this home is flooded with natural light that highlights the sleek, open-concept kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. The seamless flow from the living area to your private open balcony makes it ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Beyond your front door, enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling community pool, professional BBQ area, and a dedicated pet space for your furry friends. Key Highlights: Worry-Free Living: HOA covers water, sewer, and garbage utilities. Convenience: Dedicated parking space included. Prime Location: Minutes from e-BART, Highway 4, local dining, and major shopping centers.
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2025-10-25status Active 846-char remark
Show marketing remark (846 chars)
Great Investment, Modern Living in a Secure, Gated Oasis Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this beautifully maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo. Located in a sought-after gated community, this home is flooded with natural light that highlights the sleek, open-concept kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. The seamless flow from the living area to your private open balcony makes it ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Beyond your front door, enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling community pool, professional BBQ area, and a dedicated pet space for your furry friends. Key Highlights: Worry-Free Living: HOA covers water, sewer, and garbage utilities. Convenience: Dedicated parking space included. Prime Location: Minutes from e-BART, Highway 4, local dining, and major shopping centers.
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2025-09-08status Pending 846-char remark
Show marketing remark (846 chars)
Great Investment, Modern Living in a Secure, Gated Oasis Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this beautifully maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo. Located in a sought-after gated community, this home is flooded with natural light that highlights the sleek, open-concept kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. The seamless flow from the living area to your private open balcony makes it ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Beyond your front door, enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling community pool, professional BBQ area, and a dedicated pet space for your furry friends. Key Highlights: Worry-Free Living: HOA covers water, sewer, and garbage utilities. Convenience: Dedicated parking space included. Prime Location: Minutes from e-BART, Highway 4, local dining, and major shopping centers.
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2025-08-19$209,990 Active 846-char remark
Show marketing remark (846 chars)
Great Investment, Modern Living in a Secure, Gated Oasis Experience the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this beautifully maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo. Located in a sought-after gated community, this home is flooded with natural light that highlights the sleek, open-concept kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances. The seamless flow from the living area to your private open balcony makes it ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Beyond your front door, enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling community pool, professional BBQ area, and a dedicated pet space for your furry friends. Key Highlights: Worry-Free Living: HOA covers water, sewer, and garbage utilities. Convenience: Dedicated parking space included. Prime Location: Minutes from e-BART, Highway 4, local dining, and major shopping centers.
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2023-05-29historical
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2014-04-08soldstatus $53,900 Sold-REO
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2014-01-22status Pend-REO
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2013-12-30price $57,900 Price Change-REO
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2013-12-12price $63,900 Price Change-REO
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2013-11-05price $71,000 Price Change-REO
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2013-10-03$77,900 New-REO
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2003-05-27soldstatus $143,000
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2003-05-27soldstatus $143,000
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2003-04-10historical
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2003-03-15$143,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,229 · $102/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,368 · $114/mo
- Expected delta
- +$139/yr (+$12/mo · 11.3%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 2/10 Low
- Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $21,115
- − Mortgage interest
- −$10,082
- − Property taxes
- −$1,229
- − Insurance
- −$900
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,689
- − Management
- −$1,689
- − HOA
- −$5,820
- − Depreciation
- −$5,236
- Taxable loss
- −$5,531
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,327
- After-tax cash flow
- $-1,268/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Antioch Unified
- NCES district ID
- 0602850
- Math proficiency
- 29% ▲ 12.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 55% ▲ 25.00%
- Median HH income
- $65,935
- Composite
- 37.57/100
- National rank
- #4386
- State rank
- #200 of 517 in CA
Livability — Antioch
- Score
- 56/100
- State rank
- #782
- US rank
- #22472
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Antioch, CA
- County
- Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
- City population
- 116,477
- Metro
- San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
- Population (ZIP)
- 70,090
- Household income
- $86,196
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 3063.0
Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,287,720 people
- By 2030
- 1,364,937 · +6.0%
- By 2040
- 1,506,209 · +17.0%
- By 2050
- 1,624,373 · +26.1%
- By 2075
- 1,853,193 · +43.9%
- By 2100
- 1,901,231 · +47.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 30%
- Common ancestry
- Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -477.30%
- Current HPI
- 309.3499
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.09%
- Metro
- San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.21%
- F500 in state
- 116
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 27 | $1,492B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 3 | $174B |
|
||
| Retail | 3 | $44B |
|
||
| Insurance | 3 | $26B |
|
||
| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $115B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals / Biotech | 2 | $62B |
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Price history
+25.9% since first listed33 events — show timeline
- 2026-03-24 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2026-03-20 Listed $179,990 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2026-03-15 Rental Removed $2,099 APPFOLIO
- 2026-03-14 Rental Removed $2,099 BRIDGEMLS
- 2026-03-03 Listed for Rent $2,099 APPFOLIO
- 2026-02-17 Rental Removed $2,099 APPFOLIO
- 2026-02-02 Price Changed $2,099 APPFOLIO
- 2026-01-31 Price Changed $179,990 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2026-01-19 Price Changed $2,199 APPFOLIO
- 2026-01-19 Listed for Rent $2,311 BRIDGEMLS
- 2026-01-01 Listed for Rent $2,311 APPFOLIO
- 2025-12-21 Price Changed $189,990 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2025-12-21 Rental Removed $2,311 APPFOLIO
- 2025-12-06 Price Changed $2,311 APPFOLIO
- 2025-12-05 Rental Removed $1,950 BRIDGEMLS
- 2025-12-05 Listed for Rent $1,950 APPFOLIO
- 2025-12-04 Listed for Rent $1,950 BRIDGEMLS
- 2025-11-21 Price Changed $199,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2025-10-25 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2025-09-08 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2025-08-19 Listed $209,990 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2023-05-29 Rental Removed — RENT.
- 2014-04-08 Sold (MLS) $53,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2014-01-22 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2013-12-30 Price Changed $57,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2013-12-12 Price Changed $63,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2013-11-05 Price Changed $71,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2013-10-03 Listed $77,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2003-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records
- 2003-05-27 Sold (MLS) $143,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2003-04-10 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
- 2003-03-15 Listed $143,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
Property tax history
+0.6%/yrLatest (2025): $1,229 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…