1303 N Canal #4 St · Carlsbad, NM 88220

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Other · 2 Days on market

Built 1980

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to easy living in this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo located in a friendly 35+ community. This spacious unit offers an open-concept living and dining area filled with natural light, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bath and generous closet space, while the second bedroom is ideal for guests or a home office. The community offers a pool, perfect for cooling off and connecting with neighbors. HOA fees are just $280/month and include water, exterior maintenance, and access to all community amenities—making budgeting simple and stress-free. Conveniently located, this move-in-ready condo combines comfort, affordability, and a welcoming lifestyle.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Pool house
• Covered patio

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• COVERED PATIO
• COMMUNITY POOL
• POOL HOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Rio Pecos Condominium subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; Attached carport; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Entry level: One
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Flat roof; Slab foundation; Built as a residential condominium
• Exterior features: Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced air heating; Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#20 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Zoned schools: Early Childhood Education Center (170 students, 25% FRL); Carlsbad Intermediate School - Pr Leyva Campus (817 students, 27% FRL); Carlsbad High (1,551 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.50%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,842
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $36,599
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88220

• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,592 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $480	-5% $437	+0% $394	+5% $350	+10% $307
Rent	-10% $268	-5% $331	+0% $394	+5% $457	+10% $519
Rate	-1.0pp $457	-0.5pp $425	base $394	+0.5pp $361	+1.0pp $328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 W Orchard Ln Carlsbad, NM	2.0	1.5	1400	$1,700	$1.21	45d	2	0.17mi
1308 W Church St Unit A Carlsbad, NM	1.0	1.0	750	$975	$1.30	45d	1	1.09mi
302 N Lake St Carlsbad, NM	2.0	1.0	932	$1,500	$1.61	45d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 271-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,528
• − Management: −$1,528
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,907
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$698
• After-tax cash flow: $4,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #7925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, NM
• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 39,828
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 39,828
• Household income: $78,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 46% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.72%
• Current HPI: 114.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $125,000 NMMLS
• 2025-09-15 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2025-08-04 Pending — NMMLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $119,900 NMMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed $120,000 NMMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $125,000 NMMLS
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $132,000 NMMLS
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $135,000 NMMLS
• 2019-12-06 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2019-12-05 Sold (MLS) — WFRMLS
• 2019-10-09 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2019-10-08 Sold (MLS) — WFRMLS
• 2019-10-01 Listed $95,000 WFRMLS
• 2019-10-01 Listed $95,000 NMMLS
• 2019-08-28 Listed $100,000 WFRMLS
• 2019-08-28 Listed $100,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2020): $37 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.